Thirty Guesses A Night, Scored

The Scorecard.

Every night of the 2026 run, the model picks the 30 songs it thinks moe. are most likely to play. This is the running tally of how those picks moved as the data came in — and, once a setlist lands, how many of them the band actually played.

Heads up — this page may be stale. The pipeline that refreshes it runs daily; if it has stopped, the setlists and tape counts below are frozen at the date shown.

✦What is this?

Top-30 most-likely tracks per show across all 37 shows of the 2026 run (06-11 → 10-18), with burn-model confidence, and how each night's shortlist turned over as data arrived — which songs left or joined, both against our initial pick and drop-to-drop, order ignored.

For the 31 played shows through the leak boundary (2026-09-05), each night also gets scored: how much of the setlist we called, and how hot our odds ran — the rate we forecast against the rate that landed.

The accuracy line is deliberately low and wiggly, roughly 30–70% of each set. moe. are high-entropy; a model that marched toward 1.0 here would be a model that had learned the answers rather than the band. What is worth watching is the churn, and the gap between what we forecast and what actually happened.

songs picked a night

the shortlist, every night of the run

shows predicted

4 still ahead of us

of the set, called

46%

163 of the 355 songs actually played

nights scored

a night scores once its setlist lands

tapes to check against

posted across 25 of those nights

Across the 31 scored shows, of ~355 songs played we called 163 from our 30-song pools — 46% of the run.

Our confidence bars forecast a ~29% hit rate on our picks; ~18% actually played — the odds ran ~1.7× hot, and the violet forecast line rides above the teal every night. Read the violet line as optimistic.

songs we called expected hit rate actual hit rate forward · unscored

songs we called (orange line): of the songs moe. actually played that night, how many were on our 30-song shortlist — e.g. 5 of 7 = 71% of the set. Higher = more of the night predicted.
expected hit rate (violet dashed line): our summed confidence as a % of the 30-song pool — the share of our picks the model forecast to play each night.
actual hit rate (teal line): the share of our 30 picks that really played. Teal under violet = the odds ran hot (fewer hits than forecast); that violet-over-teal gap all run is our optimism, shown directly. The same two rates are the meters atop each column.
iterations: how many data-cutoff re-runs fed this night's prediction — more = later in the run, with more information.

How much the whole board turns over each data-drop — the amber per-column line, averaged across all nights · band = min–max · set turnover, order-free

drift from initial — how far the 30-song shortlist has moved from our pre-tour pick (filled, climbs) churn between iterations — songs in/out at each data-drop (bare line) set turnover · order-free (a reshuffle = 0) · 0–90% · hover a column for per-drop values

● PLAYED2026-06-11

one sync so far — nothing to churn yet

0% turned over vs our initial pick · 1 syncs

called 50%

expected 28%

actual 17%

called 5/10 of the set · expected / actual = of the 30-pool

#	song	conf	Δ
1	Yellow Tigers	0.422	● NEW	·
2	In Stride	0.352	● NEW	·
3	Ups and Downs	0.348	● NEW	✓
4	Buster	0.332	● NEW	·
5	Downward Facing Dog	0.326	● NEW	·
6	Meat	0.320	● NEW	·
7	Tailspin	0.310	● NEW	✓
8	Bat Country	0.306	● NEW	·
9	Moth	0.306	● NEW	·
10	Puebla	0.282	● NEW	✓
11	Not Coming Down	0.280	● NEW	·
12	Band in the Sky	0.274	● NEW	·
13	Giants	0.272	● NEW	✓
14	Rebubula	0.264	● NEW	·
15	Recreational Chemistry	0.264	● NEW	·
16	Wormwood	0.258	● NEW	·
17	Billy Goat	0.254	● NEW	✓
18	Brent Black	0.254	● NEW	·
19	Blue Jeans Pizza	0.250	● NEW	·
20	Lazarus	0.244	● NEW	·
21	Silver Sun	0.244	● NEW	·
22	Happy Hour Hero	0.240	● NEW	·
23	Letter Home	0.240	● NEW	·
24	Okayalright	0.240	● NEW	·
25	Timmy Tucker	0.240	● NEW	·
26	ATL	0.238	● NEW	·
27	32 Things	0.230	● NEW	·
28	Bearsong	0.230	● NEW	·
29	Plane Crash	0.228	● NEW	·
30	Ricky Marten	0.226	● NEW	·

missed: Crab Eyes, Haze, The Pit, Tomorrow Is Another Day, Tubing the River Styx

● PLAYED2026-06-121

13% turned over vs our initial pick · 2 syncs

called 38%

expected 27%

actual 17%

called 5/13 of the set · expected / actual = of the 30-pool

#	song	conf	Δ
1	Yellow Tigers	0.404	▲12	✓
2	In Stride	0.362	▲2	·
3	Downward Facing Dog	0.336	▼1	·
4	Buster	0.328	▼3	✓
5	Moth	0.314	▲15	·
6	Meat	0.302	▲8	·
7	Rebubula	0.302	▲3	·
8	Recreational Chemistry	0.298	▲13	·
9	Bat Country	0.296	▼2	✓
10	Ups and Downs	0.296	▼4	·
11	Band in the Sky	0.290	▼3	✓
12	Letter Home	0.290	● NEW	·
13	The Pit	0.276	▼4	·
14	Puebla	0.274	▼2	·
15	Giants	0.272	▼10	·
16	Okayalright	0.258	▲7	·
17	Captain America	0.252	▼2	✓
18	Tambourine	0.252	▼7	·
19	Billy Goat	0.248	▲8	·
20	Blue Jeans Pizza	0.244	▲10	·
21	Lazarus	0.238	▼3	·
22	Not Coming Down	0.238	● NEW	·
23	Silver Sun	0.238	▼20	·
24	Tailspin	0.238	▲5	·
25	ATL	0.236	● NEW	·
26	Bearsong	0.236	▼9	·
27	Brent Black	0.230	● NEW	·
28	Timmy Tucker	0.230	▼12	·
29	Ricky Marten	0.228	▼3	·
30	Wormwood	0.228	▼8	·

missed: I Wanna Be Sedated, Life During Wartime, New York City, Ophelia, Plane Crash, The Silent Type, Threw It All Away, Where Does the Time Go?

● PLAYED2026-06-131

53% turned over vs our initial pick · 3 syncs

called 50%

expected 28%

actual 17%

called 5/10 of the set · expected / actual = of the 30-pool

#	song	conf	Δ
1	Yellow Tigers	0.412	▲4	·
2	In Stride	0.390	▲4	✓
3	Bat Country	0.352	▲1	·
4	Buster	0.350	▼3	·
5	Downward Facing Dog	0.318	▲4	·
6	Rebubula	0.304	▲15	✓
7	Ups and Downs	0.298	—	·
8	Giants	0.290	▼5	·
9	Silver Sun	0.290	▲7	·
10	Meat	0.288	—	·
11	Tailspin	0.278	▼9	·
12	Moth	0.270	▲3	·
13	Band in the Sky	0.268	▼2	·
14	Captain America	0.268	▼6	·
15	Ricky Marten	0.268	● NEW	·
16	ATL	0.266	▲6	✓
17	Letter Home	0.264	● NEW	·
18	Puebla	0.264	▼6	·
19	Timmy Tucker	0.258	● NEW	·
20	Happy Hour Hero	0.254	● NEW	✓
21	Tambourine	0.252	▼2	·
22	Wormwood	0.252	▼2	·
23	Mar De Ma	0.244	● NEW	·
24	Recreational Chemistry	0.244	▼6	·
25	Blue Jeans Pizza	0.242	▲3	✓
26	Lazarus	0.242	▼12	·
27	The Pit	0.238	▲2	·
28	Kyle's Song	0.236	● NEW	·
29	Not Coming Down	0.234	● NEW	·
30	Billy Goat	0.232	▼4	·

missed: All Roads Lead to Home, Four, Locomotive Breath, Seat of My Pants, Sensory Deprivation Bank

● PLAYED2026-06-142

30% turned over vs our initial pick · 4 syncs

called 29%

expected 28%

actual 13%

called 4/14 of the set · expected / actual = of the 30-pool

#	song	conf	Δ
1	Yellow Tigers	0.390	▲1	·
2	Meat	0.350	▲2	✓
3	In Stride	0.336	▲2	·
4	Buster	0.330	▲14	·
5	Bat Country	0.324	▲24	·
6	Ups and Downs	0.324	▼5	·
7	Downward Facing Dog	0.322	▼4	✓
8	Silver Sun	0.292	▲1	·
9	Giants	0.288	▲18	·
10	Ricky Marten	0.280	▲20	·
11	Tailspin	0.278	▲8	·
12	Puebla	0.274	▲12	·
13	Rebubula	0.272	▲8	·
14	Tambourine	0.272	● NEW	·
15	George	0.264	▼1	·
16	Lazarus	0.264	▼10	·
17	Band in the Sky	0.260	—	·
18	Recreational Chemistry	0.258	● NEW	·
19	Letter Home	0.256	▼12	·
20	Not Coming Down	0.254	▼12	✓
21	Bearsong	0.244	● NEW	·
22	Timmy Tucker	0.242	—	·
23	Blue Jeans Pizza	0.238	▲3	·
24	Happy Hour Hero	0.238	● NEW	·
25	Okayalright	0.238	● NEW	✓
26	Wormwood	0.236	▲2	·
27	Moth	0.234	▼7	·
28	The Pit	0.234	● NEW	·
29	ATL	0.232	▼16	·
30	Seat of My Pants	0.230	▼15	·

missed: 32 Things, Fuck Her Gently, In the Kitchen, Kyle's Song, She Sends Me, Space Truckin', Spine of a Dog, Three Eyed Serpent, Wind It Up, Young Lust

● PLAYED2026-06-175

30% turned over vs our initial pick · 5 syncs

called 8%

expected 28%

actual 3%

called 1/13 of the set · expected / actual = of the 30-pool

#	song	conf	Δ
1	In Stride	0.380	▲8	·
2	Yellow Tigers	0.374	▲1	·
3	Buster	0.314	▲1	·
4	Giants	0.312	▲12	·
5	Lazarus	0.310	▲13	·
6	Downward Facing Dog	0.304	▼5	·
7	Ups and Downs	0.300	▲5	·
8	Tailspin	0.288	● NEW	·
9	Bat Country	0.286	▼1	·
10	Wormwood	0.286	● NEW	·
11	Meat	0.284	▼9	·
12	Rebubula	0.278	● NEW	·
13	Captain America	0.276	● NEW	·
14	Puebla	0.270	—	·
15	Recreational Chemistry	0.270	▲10	·
16	Okayalright	0.268	▼6	·
17	Tambourine	0.258	▲11	·
18	Not Coming Down	0.256	▲2	·
19	Band in the Sky	0.254	—	·
20	Moth	0.254	▲3	✓
21	Blue Jeans Pizza	0.252	▼14	·
22	George	0.250	▼7	·
23	Stranger Than Fiction	0.250	● NEW	·
24	Billy Goat	0.248	▼18	·
25	Bearsong	0.246	▲2	·
26	32 Things	0.242	● NEW	·
27	McBain	0.242	▼14	·
28	Ricky Marten	0.242	● NEW	·
29	Seat of My Pants	0.242	● NEW	·
30	Letter Home	0.240	▼13	·

missed: Cathedral, Cut the Cable, Eminence Front, Gone, Hi & Lo, Living Again, Nebraska, Old Things, Silver Sun, The Ghost of Ralph's Mom, Water, Where Does the Time Go?

● PLAYED2026-06-181

43% turned over vs our initial pick · 6 syncs

called 40%

expected 28%

actual 13%

called 4/10 of the set · expected / actual = of the 30-pool

#	song	conf	Δ
1	Yellow Tigers	0.382	▲1	✓
2	In Stride	0.368	▲1	·
3	Ups and Downs	0.346	▼2	·
4	Buster	0.332	—	·
5	Giants	0.310	▲14	·
6	Bat Country	0.300	▲4	✓
7	Lazarus	0.298	▲4	·
8	Not Coming Down	0.292	▲9	·
9	Silver Sun	0.292	▼3	·
10	Puebla	0.290	▼5	·
11	Timmy Tucker	0.282	▲7	·
12	Wormwood	0.280	▼5	·
13	George	0.274	▲17	✓
14	Billy Goat	0.270	● NEW	·
15	Letter Home	0.270	▼7	·
16	Meat	0.270	▲4	·
17	Moth	0.270	● NEW	·
18	Downward Facing Dog	0.258	▲6	·
19	Recreational Chemistry	0.256	▼10	✓
20	Tailspin	0.256	▲7	·
21	Ricky Marten	0.250	● NEW	·
22	Band in the Sky	0.246	▼7	·
23	Rebubula	0.246	▼11	·
24	Tambourine	0.244	● NEW	·
25	The Pit	0.240	● NEW	·
26	Okayalright	0.234	● NEW	·
27	Blue Jeans Pizza	0.232	▲2	·
28	Happy Hour Hero	0.232	▼12	·
29	Big World	0.230	▼1	·
30	Stranger Than Fiction	0.230	● NEW	·

missed: Crushing, Don't Fuck With Flo, Jazz Cigarette, Mar De Ma, New Hope for the New Year, Piranhas

● PLAYED2026-06-192

37% turned over vs our initial pick · 7 syncs

called 27%

expected 28%

actual 10%

called 3/11 of the set · expected / actual = of the 30-pool

#	song	conf	Δ
1	Yellow Tigers	0.368	—	·
2	Lazarus	0.342	▲5	·
3	Ups and Downs	0.328	▲5	·
4	In Stride	0.314	▼1	✓
5	Buster	0.312	▼1	·
6	Giants	0.310	—	·
7	Puebla	0.300	▲4	·
8	Tailspin	0.296	▲6	·
9	Bat Country	0.292	● NEW	·
10	Silver Sun	0.284	▲12	·
11	Meat	0.282	▲5	·
12	Rebubula	0.282	▼7	·
13	Moth	0.280	▼11	·
14	Billy Goat	0.274	● NEW	·
15	Not Coming Down	0.274	● NEW	·
16	Ricky Marten	0.270	▼6	·
17	Brent Black	0.268	▼8	·
18	Band in the Sky	0.266	● NEW	·
19	Letter Home	0.262	● NEW	·
20	Timmy Tucker	0.262	● NEW	✓
21	Stranger Than Fiction	0.258	▲9	·
22	Wormwood	0.258	▼5	·
23	Okayalright	0.256	▼4	·
24	Downward Facing Dog	0.254	▼11	·
25	Blue Jeans Pizza	0.250	● NEW	·
26	Tambourine	0.242	▼2	·
27	Plane Crash	0.236	▼7	✓
28	Recreational Chemistry	0.230	▼16	·
29	The Road	0.228	▼14	·
30	McBain	0.224	▼2	·

missed: Bring You Down, Bullet, Corduroy, Happy Hour Hero, In Memory of Elizabeth Reed, Jazz Wank, St. Augustine, The Linear

● PLAYED2026-06-202

27% turned over vs our initial pick · 8 syncs

called 31%

expected 28%

actual 13%

called 4/13 of the set · expected / actual = of the 30-pool

#	song	conf	Δ
1	Yellow Tigers	0.362	—	·
2	Giants	0.356	▲1	·
3	Buster	0.344	▼1	✓
4	In Stride	0.344	—	·
5	Bat Country	0.310	—	·
6	Ups and Downs	0.304	▲1	·
7	Rebubula	0.298	▲14	·
8	Lazarus	0.292	▲1	·
9	Meat	0.288	● NEW	·
10	McBain	0.284	● NEW	·
11	Wormwood	0.282	▼5	·
12	Blue Jeans Pizza	0.276	▲6	·
13	Silver Sun	0.274	● NEW	·
14	Band in the Sky	0.270	▼4	·
15	Moth	0.268	▼4	·
16	Tailspin	0.268	▼8	·
17	Brent Black	0.266	▲5	✓
18	Puebla	0.264	▲1	·
19	Happy Hour Hero	0.262	● NEW	·
20	Okayalright	0.260	● NEW	·
21	Not Coming Down	0.258	▲3	·
22	Recreational Chemistry	0.258	▲4	·
23	Letter Home	0.254	▼9	·
24	Tambourine	0.254	▲5	✓
25	Downward Facing Dog	0.246	▼13	·
26	The Pit	0.244	● NEW	·
27	Timmy Tucker	0.240	▼14	·
28	Stranger Than Fiction	0.238	● NEW	✓
29	Seat of My Pants	0.232	▼2	·
30	Bearsong	0.228	▼5	·

missed: Carpet Crawlers, Crab Eyes, It, Mexico, No Quarter, Shoot First, Spaz Medicine, Waiting for the Punchline, hajimeshite

● PLAYED2026-06-211

33% turned over vs our initial pick · 9 syncs

called 88%

expected 28%

actual 23%

called 7/8 of the set · expected / actual = of the 30-pool

#	song	conf	Δ
1	Yellow Tigers	0.384	▲2	·
2	Giants	0.346	▲4	✓
3	Ups and Downs	0.338	▲1	·
4	In Stride	0.336	▲4	·
5	Bat Country	0.328	▲6	·
6	Puebla	0.328	▲3	·
7	Lazarus	0.316	▼5	✓
8	Tailspin	0.314	▲2	·
9	Buster	0.302	▼4	·
10	Letter Home	0.292	▲10	·
11	Moth	0.288	▲7	·
12	Band in the Sky	0.282	▼5	·
13	Rebubula	0.278	● NEW	✓
14	Wormwood	0.278	▼13	·
15	Silver Sun	0.274	—	·
16	Downward Facing Dog	0.272	—	·
17	Captain America	0.260	▲2	✓
18	Meat	0.260	▼5	·
19	Blue Jeans Pizza	0.246	▲10	·
20	Opium	0.246	● NEW	✓
21	The Pit	0.246	▲2	·
22	Okayalright	0.244	▼8	·
23	Timmy Tucker	0.242	● NEW	·
24	Not Coming Down	0.240	▲1	·
25	Recreational Chemistry	0.236	▲2	·
26	Billy Goat	0.234	▼9	·
27	McBain	0.234	▼3	✓
28	George	0.230	● NEW	·
29	Shoot First	0.230	● NEW	·
30	Ricky Marten	0.228	▼9	✓

missed: Big World

● PLAYED2026-06-261

30% turned over vs our initial pick · 10 syncs

called 29%

expected 28%

actual 13%

called 4/14 of the set · expected / actual = of the 30-pool

#	song	conf	Δ
1	Ups and Downs	0.382	▲4	·
2	In Stride	0.374	▲4	·
3	Yellow Tigers	0.350	▲4	·
4	Band in the Sky	0.348	▲4	·
5	Lazarus	0.348	▼3	·
6	Buster	0.330	▼3	✓
7	Tailspin	0.322	▲4	·
8	Bat Country	0.312	▲15	·
9	Puebla	0.298	—	·
10	Blue Jeans Pizza	0.284	● NEW	·
11	Downward Facing Dog	0.280	▼1	·
12	Meat	0.274	▲8	·
13	Wormwood	0.274	▼9	·
14	Not Coming Down	0.272	● NEW	·
15	Moth	0.262	▲2	·
16	ATL	0.256	● NEW	·
17	Captain America	0.254	▲12	·
18	Okayalright	0.254	● NEW	·
19	Letter Home	0.252	—	·
20	Rebubula	0.252	▼6	·
21	Seat of My Pants	0.252	▲9	·
22	The Pit	0.250	▼1	✓
23	Giants	0.240	▼22	·
24	Happy Hour Hero	0.234	▼2	·
25	Crab Eyes	0.232	● NEW	·
26	Shoot First	0.232	● NEW	·
27	Silver Sun	0.232	▼12	✓
28	Bring You Down	0.230	● NEW	·
29	Billy Goat	0.228	● NEW	✓
30	Four	0.228	● NEW	·

missed: All Roads Lead to Home, Casey Jones, Kyle's Song, Recreational Chemistry, Ricky Marten, Skitchin' Buffalo, Stranger Than Fiction, The Low Spark of High Heeled Boys, The Road, Three Eyed Serpent

● PLAYED2026-06-271Pine Creek Lodge — Livingston, MT

70% turned over vs our initial pick · 11 syncs

called 38%

expected 31%

actual 17%

called 5/13 of the set · expected / actual = of the 30-pool

#	song	conf	Δ
1	Yellow Tigers	0.398	▲1	✓
2	Band in the Sky	0.390	▲12	·
3	Puebla	0.386	—	✓
4	Ups and Downs	0.380	▲9	·
5	In Stride	0.376	▲14	✓
6	Lazarus	0.374	▼5	·
7	Tailspin	0.372	▼1	·
8	Buster	0.346	▼3	·
9	Wormwood	0.344	▼5	·
10	Bat Country	0.332	—	·
11	Rebubula	0.332	▼2	✓
12	Blue Jeans Pizza	0.324	▲4	·
13	Meat	0.318	● NEW	·
14	Downward Facing Dog	0.306	● NEW	·
15	Giants	0.304	▼7	·
16	Recreational Chemistry	0.302	▼4	·
17	The Pit	0.290	▼10	·
18	Moth	0.286	▲4	·
19	Mar De Ma	0.278	▲2	✓
20	Billy Goat	0.274	▼3	·
21	Not Coming Down	0.274	● NEW	·
22	Okayalright	0.272	▲2	·
23	Captain America	0.270	● NEW	·
24	Letter Home	0.266	▼13	·
25	Timmy Tucker	0.266	▲4	·
26	Four	0.262	● NEW	·
27	George	0.262	● NEW	·
28	Silver Sun	0.260	● NEW	·
29	Happy Hour Hero	0.258	▼2	·
30	Shoot First	0.254	● NEW	·

missed: Brent Black, Can't Find My Way Home, Immigrant Song, In Memory of Elizabeth Reed, Jazz Wank, McBain, Same Old Story, Time Ed

● PLAYED2026-07-044Saratoga Performing Arts Center — Saratoga Springs, NY

37% turned over vs our initial pick · 12 syncs

called 75%

expected 30%

actual 20%

called 6/8 of the set · expected / actual = of the 30-pool

#	song	conf	Δ
1	Yellow Tigers	0.414	▲2	✓
2	In Stride	0.410	▲3	·
3	Band in the Sky	0.408	▲10	·
4	Tailspin	0.362	▲8	·
5	Ups and Downs	0.362	▼4	·
6	Buster	0.360	▲14	·
7	Lazarus	0.356	▲2	·
8	Wormwood	0.352	▲2	·
9	Moth	0.324	▲2	·
10	Meat	0.320	▲7	·
11	Bat Country	0.308	▼7	✓
12	Giants	0.308	▲11	·
13	Blue Jeans Pizza	0.298	● NEW	·
14	Puebla	0.292	▲1	·
15	Silver Sun	0.290	▼8	·
16	Letter Home	0.288	▼10	·
17	Downward Facing Dog	0.280	▼1	·
18	Rebubula	0.268	▼16	✓
19	Billy Goat	0.266	▼5	·
20	Captain America	0.266	● NEW	✓
21	Happy Hour Hero	0.266	● NEW	✓
22	Okayalright	0.254	▼3	✓
23	Bring You Down	0.250	● NEW	·
24	The Pit	0.248	▲2	·
25	Plane Crash	0.246	● NEW	·
26	Recreational Chemistry	0.246	● NEW	·
27	Head	0.238	● NEW	·
28	Not Coming Down	0.238	▼10	·
29	ATL	0.236	● NEW	·
30	Water	0.236	● NEW	·

missed: Three Eyed Serpent, Wind It Up

● PLAYED2026-07-09Roanoke Island Festival Park — Manteo, NC

20% turned over vs our initial pick · 13 syncs

called 12%

expected 27%

actual 3%

called 1/8 of the set · expected / actual = of the 30-pool

#	song	conf	Δ
1	In Stride	0.364	▲17	✓
2	Lazarus	0.356	▼1	·
3	Tailspin	0.344	—	·
4	Band in the Sky	0.342	▲6	·
5	Yellow Tigers	0.334	▲2	·
6	Wormwood	0.332	—	·
7	Blue Jeans Pizza	0.318	▲2	·
8	Meat	0.306	▼3	·
9	Giants	0.286	▲11	·
10	Rebubula	0.280	▲15	·
11	Buster	0.278	—	·
12	Downward Facing Dog	0.278	▲2	·
13	Moth	0.278	▼1	·
14	Puebla	0.278	▲10	·
15	Bat Country	0.262	▼11	·
16	Not Coming Down	0.258	▼8	·
17	Billy Goat	0.248	▲12	·
18	Okayalright	0.246	▼3	·
19	Silver Sun	0.242	▲2	·
20	Ups and Downs	0.242	▼18	·
21	Letter Home	0.226	▼2	·
22	Recreational Chemistry	0.226	▼9	·
23	Plane Crash	0.224	● NEW	·
24	ATL	0.220	▲3	·
25	Head	0.220	● NEW	·
26	Big World	0.218	● NEW	·
27	Brent Black	0.216	▲1	·
28	Captain America	0.214	▼6	·
29	Happy Hour Hero	0.214	● NEW	·
30	The Pit	0.208	▼14	·

missed: Down Under, Four, Old Things, Opium, The Other One, The Silent Type, Timmy Tucker

● PLAYED2026-07-103The Amp Ballantyne — Charlotte, NC

17% turned over vs our initial pick · 14 syncs

called 50%

expected 27%

actual 17%

called 5/10 of the set · expected / actual = of the 30-pool

#	song	conf	Δ
1	Lazarus	0.400	—	·
2	Band in the Sky	0.378	▲1	·
3	Yellow Tigers	0.338	▲1	·
4	Tailspin	0.328	▲4	·
5	In Stride	0.316	—	·
6	Wormwood	0.316	▲3	·
7	Buster	0.314	▼5	✓
8	Not Coming Down	0.298	▲5	·
9	Meat	0.296	▼3	·
10	Ups and Downs	0.284	▲1	·
11	Giants	0.282	▲6	✓
12	Rebubula	0.280	▲6	·
13	Moth	0.276	▲7	·
14	Bat Country	0.270	▼7	·
15	Billy Goat	0.264	▲8	✓
16	Seat of My Pants	0.262	▲6	·
17	Blue Jeans Pizza	0.256	▼3	·
18	Downward Facing Dog	0.256	▼8	·
19	Puebla	0.248	▲5	·
20	Silver Sun	0.244	▼1	✓
21	The Pit	0.242	▲7	·
22	Happy Hour Hero	0.240	▲3	✓
23	Recreational Chemistry	0.240	▼2	·
24	Captain America	0.236	▼12	·
25	Letter Home	0.236	▼10	·
26	Bearsong	0.220	—	·
27	Tomorrow Is Another Day	0.216	● NEW	·
28	Okayalright	0.210	▼1	·
29	Plane Crash	0.210	● NEW	·
30	Brent Black	0.208	● NEW	·

missed: Bullet, Can't Find My Way Home, Immigrant Song, Kyle's Song, Skitchin' Buffalo

● PLAYED2026-07-11Sand Mountain Amphitheater — Albertville, AL

23% turned over vs our initial pick · 15 syncs

called 40%

expected 27%

actual 7%

called 2/5 of the set · expected / actual = of the 30-pool

#	song	conf	Δ
1	Lazarus	0.410	▲14	·
2	Yellow Tigers	0.368	▲12	·
3	Tailspin	0.366	▼1	·
4	Band in the Sky	0.352	▲6	·
5	Ups and Downs	0.316	▲15	·
6	Buster	0.306	▲5	·
7	Meat	0.300	▼6	✓
8	Wormwood	0.300	▲4	·
9	In Stride	0.296	—	·
10	Downward Facing Dog	0.284	▼6	·
11	Giants	0.278	▲8	·
12	Puebla	0.278	▲5	·
13	Blue Jeans Pizza	0.274	▼7	·
14	Moth	0.272	▼11	·
15	Bat Country	0.270	▼2	·
16	Silver Sun	0.268	—	·
17	Rebubula	0.266	▲10	·
18	Not Coming Down	0.254	▼13	·
19	Recreational Chemistry	0.250	▲2	·
20	Letter Home	0.238	▲8	·
21	ATL	0.228	▼14	✓
22	Head	0.228	● NEW	·
23	Tubing the River Styx	0.228	● NEW	·
24	Bearsong	0.224	▲6	·
25	Kyle's Song	0.224	—	·
26	Billy Goat	0.220	▼2	·
27	Seat of My Pants	0.220	▼4	·
28	The Pit	0.214	● NEW	·
29	Okayalright	0.212	● NEW	·
30	Timmy Tucker	0.212	● NEW	·

missed: Brent Black, Cathedral, Stranger Than Fiction

● PLAYED2026-07-122The Refinery Charleston — Charleston, SC

20% turned over vs our initial pick · 16 syncs

called 42%

expected 27%

actual 17%

called 5/12 of the set · expected / actual = of the 30-pool

#	song	conf	Δ
1	Band in the Sky	0.356	▲1	·
2	Yellow Tigers	0.344	▲3	·
3	In Stride	0.340	▲7	·
4	Tailspin	0.332	—	·
5	Wormwood	0.332	▼4	·
6	Lazarus	0.330	▲13	·
7	Giants	0.328	▲11	·
8	Buster	0.326	▲12	·
9	Downward Facing Dog	0.316	—	·
10	Blue Jeans Pizza	0.310	▲2	✓
11	Moth	0.296	▼4	✓
12	Rebubula	0.276	▲1	·
13	Not Coming Down	0.274	▼7	·
14	Bat Country	0.268	▼6	·
15	Meat	0.256	▼12	·
16	Silver Sun	0.254	▲8	·
17	Captain America	0.250	▲4	·
18	Letter Home	0.246	▲4	·
19	Ups and Downs	0.236	▼8	·
20	Puebla	0.228	▼5	·
21	Seat of My Pants	0.228	● NEW	✓
22	Plane Crash	0.224	▲4	✓
23	George	0.222	● NEW	·
24	Mexico	0.218	● NEW	·
25	Happy Hour Hero	0.214	▲5	·
26	Billy Goat	0.210	▼9	·
27	New Hope for the New Year	0.208	● NEW	·
28	Recreational Chemistry	0.206	● NEW	✓
29	Head	0.204	● NEW	·
30	Okayalright	0.204	▼7	·

missed: Light Up or Leave Me Alone, Make America Fuk Again, Mar De Ma, Spine of a Dog, Three Eyed Serpent, Undone - The Sweater Song, Where Does the Time Go?

● PLAYED2026-07-167moe.down music festival — Gilbert, PA

70% turned over vs our initial pick · 17 syncs

called 42%

expected 33%

actual 17%

called 5/12 of the set · expected / actual = of the 30-pool

#	song	conf	Δ
1	Band in the Sky	0.518	—	✓
2	Tailspin	0.488	▲2	·
3	Yellow Tigers	0.426	▲5	·
4	In Stride	0.418	▲8	·
5	Bat Country	0.392	▲16	·
6	Rebubula	0.388	▲4	·
7	Wormwood	0.374	▼5	·
8	Giants	0.370	▲8	·
9	Ups and Downs	0.366	▲5	·
10	Lazarus	0.362	▼5	✓
11	Downward Facing Dog	0.354	▼8	·
12	Buster	0.342	▲13	·
13	Water	0.330	▼6	·
14	Not Coming Down	0.314	● NEW	·
15	Puebla	0.296	▼6	✓
16	Okayalright	0.292	▲2	·
17	Bring You Down	0.282	● NEW	·
18	Captain America	0.282	● NEW	·
19	Happy Hour Hero	0.282	▲9	·
20	New Hope for the New Year	0.282	● NEW	·
21	Billy Goat	0.280	● NEW	·
22	Head	0.272	● NEW	·
23	Timmy Tucker	0.270	● NEW	·
24	The Pit	0.262	▲5	✓
25	Mexico	0.260	● NEW	·
26	Crab Eyes	0.258	● NEW	·
27	Haze	0.254	● NEW	✓
28	Wind It Up	0.254	● NEW	·
29	Four	0.250	▼3	·
30	Tomorrow Is Another Day	0.250	● NEW	·

missed: Cajun Moon, Carnival Punks, Faker, No Quarter, Shoot First, Tubing the River Styx, Where Does the Time Go?

● PLAYED2026-07-173moe.down music festival — Gilbert, PA

43% turned over vs our initial pick · 18 syncs

called 60%

expected 33%

actual 30%

called 9/15 of the set · expected / actual = of the 30-pool

#	song	conf	Δ
1	Ups and Downs	0.492	▲16	✓
2	Tailspin	0.458	▲21	·
3	In Stride	0.438	▲2	✓
4	Yellow Tigers	0.414	▼2	✓
5	Downward Facing Dog	0.406	▲2	✓
6	Bat Country	0.396	▼5	·
7	Wormwood	0.390	▲5	·
8	Buster	0.380	▼5	✓
9	Rebubula	0.352	▲11	✓
10	Giants	0.348	▼2	·
11	Captain America	0.340	▲11	✓
12	Not Coming Down	0.334	▲12	·
13	32 Things	0.332	▲12	·
14	Silver Sun	0.326	▼1	·
15	Kyle's Song	0.306	● NEW	·
16	Okayalright	0.306	▼1	·
17	Water	0.302	▲1	✓
18	Tomorrow Is Another Day	0.296	▲10	·
19	Happy Hour Hero	0.290	▼5	·
20	Billy Goat	0.286	▼1	·
21	Bring You Down	0.286	● NEW	·
22	George	0.284	▼11	·
23	New Hope for the New Year	0.276	● NEW	✓
24	Timmy Tucker	0.274	● NEW	·
25	Head	0.272	● NEW	·
26	Meat	0.264	▼17	·
27	Letter Home	0.262	● NEW	·
28	Four	0.260	▼2	·
29	Wind It Up	0.260	—	·
30	Sensory Deprivation Bank	0.258	● NEW	·

missed: Blue Jeans Pizza, Carpet Crawlers, Crushing, Immigrant Song, Mar De Ma, McBain

● PLAYED2026-07-183moe.down music festival — Gilbert, PA

47% turned over vs our initial pick · 19 syncs

called 62%

expected 32%

actual 17%

called 5/8 of the set · expected / actual = of the 30-pool

#	song	conf	Δ
1	Bat Country	0.500	▲4	·
2	Tailspin	0.478	▲9	·
3	Giants	0.454	▼2	·
4	Wormwood	0.436	▼1	·
5	32 Things	0.368	● NEW	·
6	Not Coming Down	0.368	—	·
7	Billy Goat	0.354	● NEW	✓
8	Happy Hour Hero	0.354	▲15	✓
9	Tomorrow Is Another Day	0.340	● NEW	·
10	Four	0.336	▲20	·
11	Head	0.324	▼7	·
12	Okayalright	0.322	▲4	·
13	Meat	0.316	▲9	✓
14	Mexico	0.300	● NEW	✓
15	George	0.296	● NEW	·
16	Recreational Chemistry	0.296	▲4	·
17	Brent Black	0.292	▲7	·
18	Moth	0.288	● NEW	·
19	All Roads Lead to Home	0.282	● NEW	✓
20	Letter Home	0.282	● NEW	·
21	Bullet	0.280	—	·
22	Kyle's Song	0.280	● NEW	·
23	Silver Sun	0.278	▲5	·
24	St. Augustine	0.276	▲1	·
25	Timmy Tucker	0.272	● NEW	·
26	It	0.264	● NEW	·
27	Sensory Deprivation Bank	0.264	● NEW	·
28	Bring You Down	0.262	● NEW	·
29	Crab Eyes	0.262	—	·
30	Band in the Sky	0.258	▼18	·

missed: Plane Crash, The Weight, Wind It Up

● PLAYED2026-07-31The Caverns — Pelham, TN

53% turned over vs our initial pick · 20 syncs

called 47%

expected 32%

actual 23%

called 7/15 of the set · expected / actual = of the 30-pool

#	song	conf	Δ
1	Bat Country	0.468	▲6	✓
2	Giants	0.462	▲3	·
3	Tailspin	0.424	▲21	✓
4	Wormwood	0.414	▲2	·
5	Not Coming Down	0.352	▲7	·
6	Yellow Tigers	0.344	▼4	·
7	George	0.328	▲4	✓
8	Puebla	0.324	▲9	✓
9	32 Things	0.322	● NEW	·
10	Band in the Sky	0.318	▼1	·
11	Seat of My Pants	0.314	● NEW	·
12	Silver Sun	0.314	▲10	·
13	Bullet	0.304	▲12	·
14	Moth	0.300	▲7	·
15	Okayalright	0.298	▲1	·
16	Recreational Chemistry	0.298	▲7	·
17	Three Eyed Serpent	0.294	▲12	✓
18	Tomorrow Is Another Day	0.292	—	·
19	Crab Eyes	0.290	● NEW	·
20	Bring You Down	0.288	▼10	·
21	Head	0.288	▲5	·
22	In Stride	0.284	▼21	·
23	Brent Black	0.280	● NEW	✓
24	Kyle's Song	0.272	▼4	·
25	Four	0.268	▲2	·
26	Buster	0.266	▼23	·
27	Sensory Deprivation Bank	0.264	● NEW	·
28	St. Augustine	0.262	● NEW	·
29	It	0.260	● NEW	✓
30	Living Again	0.258	● NEW	·

missed: Deep This Time, Down Boy, Lazarus, Meat, Paranoid, The Pit, Time Ed, Where Does the Time Go?

● PLAYED2026-08-01The Caverns — Pelham, TN

one sync so far — nothing to churn yet

called 43%

expected 32%

actual 20%

called 6/14 of the set · expected / actual = of the 30-pool

#	song	conf	Δ
1	Giants	0.516	● NEW	·
2	In Stride	0.428	● NEW	·
3	Wormwood	0.416	● NEW	·
4	Yellow Tigers	0.404	● NEW	·
5	Not Coming Down	0.386	● NEW	·
6	Band in the Sky	0.366	● NEW	·
7	Moth	0.356	● NEW	·
8	Okayalright	0.354	● NEW	·
9	Buster	0.344	● NEW	·
10	Blue Jeans Pizza	0.318	● NEW	·
11	Head	0.314	● NEW	✓
12	Seat of My Pants	0.314	● NEW	·
13	32 Things	0.310	● NEW	·
14	Silver Sun	0.310	● NEW	·
15	Bullet	0.306	● NEW	✓
16	Bring You Down	0.304	● NEW	·
17	Four	0.304	● NEW	✓
18	Recreational Chemistry	0.304	● NEW	·
19	Tomorrow Is Another Day	0.302	● NEW	·
20	Ups and Downs	0.296	● NEW	·
21	Rebubula	0.292	● NEW	·
22	Timmy Tucker	0.292	● NEW	✓
23	Captain America	0.288	● NEW	·
24	Kyle's Song	0.288	● NEW	✓
25	Mar De Ma	0.288	● NEW	·
26	Sensory Deprivation Bank	0.280	● NEW	·
27	New Hope for the New Year	0.262	● NEW	·
28	Tubing the River Styx	0.260	● NEW	·
29	Big World	0.254	● NEW	✓
30	Shoot First	0.254	● NEW	·

missed: Calyphornya, Living Again, No Rain, Old Things, Opium, Ricky Marten, Skrunk, The Ghost of Ralph's Mom

● PLAYED2026-08-122Frederik Meijer Gardens Amphitheater — Grand Rapids, MI

27% turned over vs our initial pick · 22 syncs

called 86%

expected 27%

actual 20%

called 6/7 of the set · expected / actual = of the 30-pool

#	song	conf	Δ
1	Giants	0.440	▲5	·
2	Yellow Tigers	0.404	▼1	·
3	In Stride	0.388	▲6	✓
4	Wormwood	0.342	▲4	·
5	Not Coming Down	0.308	▲7	·
6	Band in the Sky	0.300	▲7	✓
7	32 Things	0.290	● NEW	·
8	Rebubula	0.286	▲6	·
9	Buster	0.280	▼7	✓
10	Ups and Downs	0.280	▼3	·
11	Moth	0.274	● NEW	·
12	Silver Sun	0.266	▲10	·
13	Blue Jeans Pizza	0.264	▲12	·
14	Downward Facing Dog	0.262	▼4	✓
15	Captain America	0.260	—	✓
16	Okayalright	0.260	▲11	·
17	Seat of My Pants	0.260	▲11	·
18	Tomorrow Is Another Day	0.260	● NEW	·
19	Happy Hour Hero	0.256	▼16	·
20	Recreational Chemistry	0.246	▼3	·
21	Mar De Ma	0.236	▼1	·
22	Sensory Deprivation Bank	0.234	▲1	·
23	The Road	0.226	● NEW	·
24	Bring You Down	0.222	▼13	·
25	Water	0.222	● NEW	·
26	Letter Home	0.220	● NEW	·
27	Bat Country	0.216	▼23	·
28	Crab Eyes	0.216	▼12	·
29	Plane Crash	0.214	▼24	✓
30	Billy Goat	0.208	▼9	·

missed: Spine of a Dog

● PLAYED2026-08-131Everwise Amphitheater — White River State Park, Indianapolis, IN

40% turned over vs our initial pick · 23 syncs

called 44%

expected 27%

actual 13%

called 4/9 of the set · expected / actual = of the 30-pool

#	song	conf	Δ
1	Giants	0.408	▲1	·
2	Yellow Tigers	0.376	▲7	✓
3	Ups and Downs	0.330	▲13	·
4	Wormwood	0.330	▲1	·
5	Bring You Down	0.308	▲25	·
6	Rebubula	0.302	▲5	·
7	Silver Sun	0.300	▲11	·
8	Bat Country	0.298	▲9	·
9	Not Coming Down	0.288	▼2	·
10	Okayalright	0.286	▲3	·
11	Plane Crash	0.284	● NEW	·
12	32 Things	0.278	▲12	·
13	Happy Hour Hero	0.278	▲13	·
14	Blue Jeans Pizza	0.266	▲7	·
15	Three Eyed Serpent	0.258	▲7	✓
16	Tomorrow Is Another Day	0.258	▼2	·
17	New Hope for the New Year	0.256	▲6	·
18	Crab Eyes	0.246	▲7	·
19	Recreational Chemistry	0.244	● NEW	·
20	Brent Black	0.242	▼8	·
21	Billy Goat	0.240	▼2	·
22	Moth	0.234	● NEW	·
23	Puebla	0.230	▼17	✓
24	Water	0.228	● NEW	·
25	Mar De Ma	0.226	● NEW	·
26	Seat of My Pants	0.226	● NEW	·
27	Tubing the River Styx	0.226	● NEW	·
28	Lazarus	0.216	▼13	·
29	Tailspin	0.216	▼21	✓
30	Wind It Up	0.214	● NEW	·

missed: Locomotive Breath, Shoot First, Stranger Than Fiction, The Pit, Timmy Tucker

● PLAYED2026-08-14Evans Amphitheater — Cain Park, Cleveland Heights, OH

43% turned over vs our initial pick · 24 syncs

called 50%

expected 27%

actual 20%

called 6/12 of the set · expected / actual = of the 30-pool

#	song	conf	Δ
1	Giants	0.430	—	·
2	Happy Hour Hero	0.332	▲11	·
3	Wormwood	0.326	▲1	·
4	Rebubula	0.322	▲16	·
5	Bat Country	0.320	—	✓
6	Okayalright	0.316	▲11	·
7	Not Coming Down	0.302	—	·
8	Meat	0.288	● NEW	·
9	Silver Sun	0.284	▼1	·
10	32 Things	0.274	▲1	✓
11	Moth	0.274	▼5	·
12	Billy Goat	0.266	▲18	·
13	Recreational Chemistry	0.264	▲3	✓
14	Ups and Downs	0.264	● NEW	·
15	Tomorrow Is Another Day	0.258	▲12	·
16	Wind It Up	0.256	▲7	✓
17	Mar De Ma	0.252	▲8	·
18	Seat of My Pants	0.248	▲10	✓
19	Crab Eyes	0.246	▲3	·
20	Blue Jeans Pizza	0.242	▲4	·
21	Brent Black	0.234	● NEW	·
22	New Hope for the New Year	0.234	● NEW	·
23	Sensory Deprivation Bank	0.234	● NEW	✓
24	Buster	0.232	▼15	·
25	In Stride	0.232	▼23	·
26	All Roads Lead to Home	0.228	● NEW	·
27	Bring You Down	0.228	● NEW	·
28	The Road	0.226	● NEW	·
29	Four	0.224	● NEW	·
30	Bullet	0.218	▼9	·

missed: Bloody Well Right, Den, McBain, Mexico, Old Things, Space Truckin'

● PLAYED2026-08-15Ravinia Festival, Highland Park, IL

30% turned over vs our initial pick · 25 syncs

called 75%

expected 27%

actual 20%

called 6/8 of the set · expected / actual = of the 30-pool

#	song	conf	Δ
1	Giants	0.490	—	✓
2	In Stride	0.376	—	·
3	Wormwood	0.344	▲15	·
4	Okayalright	0.338	▲15	·
5	Not Coming Down	0.330	▲9	·
6	Moth	0.310	● NEW	·
7	Silver Sun	0.304	▲8	·
8	Ups and Downs	0.290	▲2	✓
9	Buster	0.288	▲4	·
10	Happy Hour Hero	0.288	● NEW	·
11	Band in the Sky	0.276	▼7	·
12	Tomorrow Is Another Day	0.270	▲9	·
13	Bring You Down	0.264	▲7	·
14	Meat	0.256	▲9	✓
15	Lazarus	0.252	▲7	·
16	Rebubula	0.252	▼5	·
17	Crab Eyes	0.250	● NEW	✓
18	Mar De Ma	0.246	▲8	✓
19	Blue Jeans Pizza	0.244	▼3	·
20	Brent Black	0.244	● NEW	·
21	Letter Home	0.244	● NEW	·
22	Billy Goat	0.242	● NEW	·
23	Captain America	0.238	▼16	·
24	Four	0.232	● NEW	·
25	St. Augustine	0.226	● NEW	·
26	New Hope for the New Year	0.220	● NEW	·
27	Plane Crash	0.218	▼24	·
28	The Road	0.212	● NEW	✓
29	Yellow Tigers	0.208	▼23	·
30	ATL	0.200	● NEW	·

missed: In Memory of Elizabeth Reed, Opium

● PLAYED2026-08-172

one sync so far — nothing to churn yet

#	song	conf	Δ

● PLAYED2026-08-192Knuckleheads Saloon — Kansas City, MO

57% turned over vs our initial pick · 27 syncs

called 50%

expected 30%

actual 20%

called 6/12 of the set · expected / actual = of the 30-pool

#	song	conf	Δ
1	Yellow Tigers	0.414	▲2	·
2	Buster	0.406	▲2	✓
3	In Stride	0.406	▼1	✓
4	Okayalright	0.384	▼3	·
5	Silver Sun	0.364	—	✓
6	Rebubula	0.356	▲4	·
7	Band in the Sky	0.350	—	·
8	Moth	0.340	▲1	✓
9	Not Coming Down	0.332	▼1	·
10	Wormwood	0.332	▼4	·
11	Happy Hour Hero	0.320	▲6	·
12	Downward Facing Dog	0.310	▲1	·
13	Captain America	0.302	▲8	·
14	Four	0.296	▲2	·
15	Puebla	0.294	▲5	·
16	Three Eyed Serpent	0.294	▲7	✓
17	Bat Country	0.286	● NEW	·
18	Plane Crash	0.286	▼7	·
19	Billy Goat	0.282	▼1	✓
20	Brent Black	0.276	▼5	·
21	Tailspin	0.268	▲1	·
22	Tomorrow Is Another Day	0.262	▼10	·
23	The Pit	0.242	▲4	·
24	New Hope for the New Year	0.240	● NEW	·
25	Seat of My Pants	0.240	● NEW	·
26	Threw It All Away	0.238	● NEW	·
27	Water	0.236	▲1	·
28	Lazarus	0.230	▼3	·
29	Recreational Chemistry	0.230	● NEW	·
30	Giants	0.228	● NEW	·

missed: Carpet Crawlers, Casey Jones, Living Again, New York City, Shoot 1st, Spaz Medicine

● PLAYED2026-08-204The Waiting Room Lounge — Omaha, NE

47% turned over vs our initial pick · 28 syncs

called 53%

expected 31%

actual 27%

called 8/15 of the set · expected / actual = of the 30-pool

#	song	conf	Δ
1	Bat Country	0.404	▲18	·
2	Yellow Tigers	0.396	▲4	·
3	Okayalright	0.394	● NEW	✓
4	Rebubula	0.394	▲3	·
5	Happy Hour Hero	0.362	▲25	·
6	Not Coming Down	0.362	▼2	✓
7	Giants	0.360	▼6	·
8	Band in the Sky	0.358	▼5	·
9	Wormwood	0.342	—	✓
10	Captain America	0.336	▲1	·
11	Puebla	0.316	▲18	✓
12	Ups and Downs	0.314	▼10	·
13	Downward Facing Dog	0.308	▼1	·
14	Plane Crash	0.304	● NEW	✓
15	Tomorrow Is Another Day	0.300	▲5	·
16	Seat of My Pants	0.292	▲11	·
17	Lazarus	0.290	▲5	·
18	Brent Black	0.286	▲8	✓
19	The Pit	0.278	▼4	·
20	Timmy Tucker	0.278	▼4	·
21	Wind It Up	0.276	▼3	·
22	Meat	0.274	▼14	·
23	Four	0.270	● NEW	✓
24	George	0.264	● NEW	·
25	Kyle's Song	0.258	● NEW	·
26	New Hope for the New Year	0.256	▼2	·
27	ATL	0.250	● NEW	·
28	Tailspin	0.248	▼5	✓
29	32 Things	0.238	● NEW	·
30	Mexico	0.236	● NEW	·

missed: Godzilla, Nebraska, She, Spine of a Dog, Twilight Zone, Water, Where Does the Time Go?

● PLAYED2026-08-212The Mishawaka — Bellvue, CO

53% turned over vs our initial pick · 29 syncs

called 50%

expected 32%

actual 23%

called 7/14 of the set · expected / actual = of the 30-pool

#	song	conf	Δ
1	Yellow Tigers	0.468	▲8	✓
2	Bat Country	0.448	▲11	✓
3	Rebubula	0.432	▲2	✓
4	Giants	0.428	▲12	·
5	Band in the Sky	0.388	▼4	·
6	Happy Hour Hero	0.368	▲4	·
7	Tomorrow Is Another Day	0.366	● NEW	·
8	Ups and Downs	0.366	▲16	·
9	Captain America	0.358	▼3	✓
10	Meat	0.348	▼3	·
11	Downward Facing Dog	0.342	▲16	✓
12	Lazarus	0.328	● NEW	✓
13	Timmy Tucker	0.324	● NEW	·
14	Blue Jeans Pizza	0.314	▲7	·
15	The Pit	0.310	● NEW	·
16	Recreational Chemistry	0.306	▼13	✓
17	Seat of My Pants	0.298	▲11	·
18	Kyle's Song	0.290	● NEW	·
19	Tubing the River Styx	0.290	● NEW	·
20	In Stride	0.286	▼18	·
21	Mar De Ma	0.282	▼4	·
22	Wind It Up	0.274	▼10	·
23	32 Things	0.272	● NEW	·
24	George	0.272	● NEW	·
25	All Roads Lead to Home	0.270	● NEW	·
26	Threw It All Away	0.270	● NEW	·
27	Letter Home	0.266	● NEW	·
28	Buster	0.254	▼14	·
29	Mexico	0.252	▲1	·
30	Old Things	0.252	● NEW	·

missed: ATL, Crushing, Fearless, New Hope for the New Year, Skrunk, Tambourine, The Low Spark of High Heeled Boys

● PLAYED2026-08-222The Mishawaka — Bellvue, CO

60% turned over vs our initial pick · 30 syncs

called 50%

expected 32%

actual 27%

called 8/16 of the set · expected / actual = of the 30-pool

#	song	conf	Δ
1	In Stride	0.452	▲1	·
2	Band in the Sky	0.438	▼1	·
3	Giants	0.434	▲4	·
4	Happy Hour Hero	0.426	—	✓
5	Buster	0.376	▼2	·
6	Ups and Downs	0.376	▲6	✓
7	Tomorrow Is Another Day	0.374	● NEW	·
8	Meat	0.364	▲5	✓
9	32 Things	0.328	▲7	·
10	Bullet	0.328	▲5	·
11	Wind It Up	0.326	● NEW	✓
12	Blue Jeans Pizza	0.312	● NEW	✓
13	Kyle's Song	0.312	● NEW	✓
14	Timmy Tucker	0.312	● NEW	·
15	Silver Sun	0.310	● NEW	·
16	The Pit	0.308	▼6	·
17	George	0.302	● NEW	·
18	Three Eyed Serpent	0.302	▼4	·
19	Mar De Ma	0.300	▼1	·
20	Crab Eyes	0.284	● NEW	✓
21	Mexico	0.284	▲5	✓
22	Tubing the River Styx	0.284	● NEW	·
23	Seat of My Pants	0.282	● NEW	·
24	Threw It All Away	0.272	● NEW	·
25	All Roads Lead to Home	0.270	● NEW	·
26	Opium	0.266	● NEW	·
27	Bring You Down	0.262	● NEW	·
28	Moth	0.260	▼9	·
29	Plane Crash	0.240	● NEW	·
30	Billy Goat	0.238	▼7	·

missed: Deep This Time, Haze, Immigrant Song, Letter Home, Old Things, Rise, Skitchin' Buffalo, West L.A. Fadeaway

● PLAYED2026-09-043Adirondack Music Festival — Lake George, NY

50% turned over vs our initial pick · 31 syncs

called 57%

expected 32%

actual 27%

called 8/14 of the set · expected / actual = of the 30-pool

#	song	conf	Δ
1	In Stride	0.490	▲15	·
2	Band in the Sky	0.482	▲2	✓
3	Giants	0.462	▲3	·
4	Buster	0.396	▲1	·
5	Moth	0.364	▲4	·
6	Timmy Tucker	0.360	▲22	✓
7	Tomorrow Is Another Day	0.352	▲18	·
8	Three Eyed Serpent	0.344	▲2	✓
9	Seat of My Pants	0.322	● NEW	·
10	Bullet	0.318	▲11	✓
11	Mar De Ma	0.318	▲4	✓
12	Plane Crash	0.314	▲11	·
13	32 Things	0.310	● NEW	·
14	It	0.308	—	·
15	Tailspin	0.308	▲15	·
16	The Pit	0.306	▲2	·
17	Yellow Tigers	0.298	▼16	✓
18	Billy Goat	0.292	▼7	✓
19	Silver Sun	0.290	▲5	✓
20	Four	0.284	▲2	·
21	All Roads Lead to Home	0.280	▲5	·
22	Opium	0.278	● NEW	·
23	Puebla	0.276	▼21	·
24	Rebubula	0.272	▲5	·
25	Bat Country	0.266	▼22	·
26	George	0.264	▲1	·
27	Threw It All Away	0.260	● NEW	·
28	Okayalright	0.258	● NEW	·
29	Jazz Cigarette	0.252	● NEW	·
30	Tubing the River Styx	0.252	● NEW	·

missed: Deal, New Hope for the New Year, New York City, Not Coming Down, Stranger Than Fiction, Wormwood

● PLAYED2026-09-052Adirondack Music Festival — Lake George, NY

50% turned over vs our initial pick · 32 syncs

called 50%

expected 32%

actual 20%

called 6/12 of the set · expected / actual = of the 30-pool

#	song	conf	Δ
1	Giants	0.518	▲4	·
2	In Stride	0.482	▲17	·
3	Buster	0.468	▼1	✓
4	Bat Country	0.398	▼1	·
5	Tomorrow Is Another Day	0.374	▲4	·
6	Puebla	0.364	▲2	·
7	Plane Crash	0.346	▼1	·
8	Moth	0.344	● NEW	✓
9	The Pit	0.340	▲8	·
10	Captain America	0.334	▲2	·
11	Brent Black	0.332	▲14	·
12	Recreational Chemistry	0.326	▲1	·
13	Tailspin	0.318	▲3	·
14	Seat of My Pants	0.314	● NEW	·
15	George	0.304	▲12	·
16	Rebubula	0.304	▲5	✓
17	Downward Facing Dog	0.302	▲5	·
18	Tubing the River Styx	0.294	● NEW	·
19	32 Things	0.288	▲9	✓
20	Four	0.282	● NEW	✓
21	It	0.280	● NEW	·
22	Big World	0.278	▲8	·
23	Threw It All Away	0.278	● NEW	·
24	Okayalright	0.262	▼10	·
25	Bring You Down	0.260	● NEW	✓
26	Hi & Lo	0.260	● NEW	·
27	All Roads Lead to Home	0.256	● NEW	·
28	The Road	0.256	● NEW	·
29	Lazarus	0.250	—	·
30	Beautiful Mess	0.248	● NEW	·

missed: Locomotive Breath, Meat, She Sends Me, Spine of a Dog, St. Augustine, Wind It Up

● NO DATA2026-09-06Adirondack Music Festival — Lake George, NY

40% turned over vs our initial pick · 33 syncs

expected 32%

actual — no data

rates of the 30-pool · no setlist for this night — excluded from the run score

#	song	conf	Δ
1	Giants	0.510	▲6
2	Bat Country	0.444	▲22
3	In Stride	0.414	▲9
4	Puebla	0.402	▲23
5	Tomorrow Is Another Day	0.372	▲23
6	The Pit	0.358	▲2
7	Recreational Chemistry	0.354	● NEW
8	Plane Crash	0.348	▼2
9	Tailspin	0.338	▲9
10	Okayalright	0.330	▲3
11	Ups and Downs	0.324	▼9
12	Blue Jeans Pizza	0.316	▼1
13	Seat of My Pants	0.316	● NEW
14	Captain America	0.314	● NEW
15	Yellow Tigers	0.312	▼14
16	Downward Facing Dog	0.310	—
17	Brent Black	0.308	▲12
18	Water	0.308	▲1
19	George	0.304	▼16
20	Lazarus	0.288	▲2
21	Happy Hour Hero	0.284	▼12
22	Mexico	0.284	● NEW
23	It	0.282	—
24	Opium	0.280	● NEW
25	Tubing the River Styx	0.268	—
26	Big World	0.264	● NEW
27	White Lightning Turpentine	0.254	● NEW
28	Living Again	0.250	● NEW
29	Jazz Wank	0.248	● NEW
30	Threw It All Away	0.246	● NEW

○ UPCOMING2026-10-15Harrah's Lake Tahoe — Stateline, NV

40% turned over vs our initial pick · 33 syncs

expected 23%

actual —

rates of the 30-pool · actual after the show

#	song	conf	Δ
1	Three Eyed Serpent	0.272	▲2
2	Meat	0.270	▲10
3	Yellow Tigers	0.266	▼2
4	In Stride	0.258	● NEW
5	Downward Facing Dog	0.252	▲14
6	Buster	0.250	● NEW
7	Plane Crash	0.244	● NEW
8	Rebubula	0.244	▲17
9	Bat Country	0.242	▲17
10	Happy Hour Hero	0.240	▲4
11	Band in the Sky	0.232	▼9
12	The Pit	0.232	● NEW
13	Silver Sun	0.230	▼8
14	Tomorrow Is Another Day	0.230	● NEW
15	Mar De Ma	0.228	▼7
16	Billy Goat	0.226	▼10
17	Blue Jeans Pizza	0.226	▲1
18	Bullet	0.226	▼14
19	George	0.226	● NEW
20	Captain America	0.224	● NEW
21	New Hope for the New Year	0.224	▼11
22	Giants	0.220	● NEW
23	Tailspin	0.220	● NEW
24	Ups and Downs	0.220	▼8
25	Seat of My Pants	0.216	● NEW
26	Tubing the River Styx	0.212	● NEW
27	Wind It Up	0.208	▼14
28	Brent Black	0.206	● NEW
29	Kyle's Song	0.204	▼5
30	Timmy Tucker	0.204	▼23

○ UPCOMING2026-10-16The Regency Ballroom — San Francisco, CA

40% turned over vs our initial pick · 33 syncs

expected 22%

actual —

rates of the 30-pool · actual after the show

#	song	conf	Δ
1	Buster	0.326	▲1
2	Rebubula	0.288	▲4
3	Wind It Up	0.286	▲4
4	Moth	0.268	▲10
5	Bring You Down	0.266	▲24
6	Meat	0.266	▲2
7	St. Augustine	0.264	● NEW
8	Four	0.258	● NEW
9	Spine of a Dog	0.242	● NEW
10	32 Things	0.228	▲7
11	Mar De Ma	0.222	▲11
12	Billy Goat	0.218	● NEW
13	Wormwood	0.216	● NEW
14	Bullet	0.214	● NEW
15	Yellow Tigers	0.208	● NEW
16	Silver Sun	0.202	● NEW
17	Band in the Sky	0.200	● NEW
18	In Stride	0.198	▼17
19	Z0Z (Zed Nought Z)	0.198	● NEW
20	Seat of My Pants	0.196	▼10
21	Timmy Tucker	0.196	● NEW
22	Captain America	0.192	▼17
23	The Pit	0.190	▼3
24	George	0.188	● NEW
25	Okayalright	0.188	● NEW
26	Water	0.188	● NEW
27	Not Coming Down	0.186	▼2
28	Skitchin' Buffalo	0.186	● NEW
29	Tailspin	0.186	▼6
30	All Roads Lead to Home	0.180	● NEW

○ UPCOMING2026-10-17The Bellwether — Los Angeles, CA

33% turned over vs our initial pick · 33 syncs

expected 22%

actual —

rates of the 30-pool · actual after the show

#	song	conf	Δ
1	In Stride	0.274	▲9
2	Bat Country	0.264	▲4
3	Yellow Tigers	0.258	▲6
4	Giants	0.252	▼3
5	Blue Jeans Pizza	0.240	▼1
6	Mexico	0.238	▲5
7	Puebla	0.238	▼2
8	Lazarus	0.236	● NEW
9	The Pit	0.236	▲13
10	Three Eyed Serpent	0.232	▲19
11	Ups and Downs	0.232	▼8
12	Plane Crash	0.226	▼10
13	Bullet	0.220	▲14
14	Billy Goat	0.216	—
15	Recreational Chemistry	0.216	▲8
16	Band in the Sky	0.214	▲10
17	Okayalright	0.214	▲2
18	Seat of My Pants	0.208	▼3
19	All Roads Lead to Home	0.204	● NEW
20	Downward Facing Dog	0.204	—
21	St. Augustine	0.204	● NEW
22	Water	0.204	▲3
23	Buster	0.202	▼15
24	Rebubula	0.202	● NEW
25	Spine of a Dog	0.202	● NEW
26	Wind It Up	0.202	● NEW
27	Crab Eyes	0.200	● NEW
28	It	0.200	● NEW
29	Bring You Down	0.198	● NEW
30	Captain America	0.198	▼23

○ UPCOMING2026-10-18Belly Up Tavern — Solana Beach, CA

33% turned over vs our initial pick · 33 syncs

expected 22%

actual —

rates of the 30-pool · actual after the show

#	song	conf	Δ
1	Bat Country	0.266	▲19
2	Plane Crash	0.262	▲3
3	Yellow Tigers	0.260	▼2
4	In Stride	0.258	● NEW
5	Captain America	0.248	● NEW
6	Downward Facing Dog	0.246	● NEW
7	Ups and Downs	0.246	—
8	Recreational Chemistry	0.244	▲3
9	Three Eyed Serpent	0.244	▼5
10	Giants	0.238	▲20
11	Puebla	0.236	● NEW
12	Band in the Sky	0.234	▼10
13	Tailspin	0.234	▼3
14	Silver Sun	0.232	▼8
15	Meat	0.224	▲10
16	Billy Goat	0.216	▼4
17	Okayalright	0.216	▼4
18	New Hope for the New Year	0.210	▲5
19	Shoot First	0.210	● NEW
20	Wind It Up	0.208	▼5
21	Bullet	0.206	▼12
22	Mexico	0.206	● NEW
23	Moth	0.204	▼6
24	Brent Black	0.200	● NEW
25	Crab Eyes	0.200	● NEW
26	Happy Hour Hero	0.200	▼8
27	Lazarus	0.198	▼24
28	Timmy Tucker	0.198	▼14
29	Mar De Ma	0.196	▼13
30	It	0.194	▼2