moe.

Prediction churn dashboard

Top-30 most-likely tracks per show across all 36 shows of the 2026 run (06-11 → 10-18), with burn-model confidence, how each night's shortlist turned over as data arrived (which songs left or joined — both vs our initial pick and drop-to-drop, order ignored), and — for the 15 played shows through the leak boundary (2026-07-11) — how much of each setlist we called and how hot our odds ran (forecast hit rate vs. actual). The accuracy line is deliberately low and wiggly (~30–70% of each set): moe. is high-entropy; the value here is the churn and the forecast-vs-actual gap, not a march to 1.0.

Heads up — this page may be stale. The pipeline that refreshes it runs daily; if it has stopped, the setlists and tape counts below are frozen at the date shown.

Across the 15 scored shows, of ~156 songs played we called 61 from our 30-song pools — 39% of the run.

Our confidence bars forecast a ~28% hit rate on our picks; ~14% actually played — the odds ran ~2.1× hot, and the violet forecast line rides above the teal every night. Read the violet line as optimistic.

songs we called expected hit rate actual hit rate forward · unscored

songs we called (orange line): of the songs moe. actually played that night, how many were on our 30-song shortlist — e.g. 5 of 7 = 71% of the set. Higher = more of the night predicted.
expected hit rate (violet dashed line): our summed confidence as a % of the 30-song pool — the share of our picks the model forecast to play each night.
actual hit rate (teal line): the share of our 30 picks that really played. Teal under violet = the odds ran hot (fewer hits than forecast); that violet-over-teal gap all run is our optimism, shown directly. The same two rates are the meters atop each column.
iterations: how many data-cutoff re-runs fed this night's prediction — more = later in the run, with more information.

How much the whole board turns over each data-drop — the amber per-column line, averaged across all nights · band = min–max · set turnover, order-free

drift from initial — how far the 30-song shortlist has moved from our pre-tour pick (filled, climbs) churn between iterations — songs in/out at each data-drop (bare line) set turnover · order-free (a reshuffle = 0) · 0–80% · hover a column for per-drop values

● PLAYED2026-06-11

one sync so far — nothing to churn yet

0% turned over vs our initial pick · 1 syncs

called 50%

expected 28%

actual 17%

called 5/10 of the set · expected / actual = of the 30-pool

#	song	conf	Δ
1	Yellow Tigers	0.422	● NEW	·
2	In Stride	0.352	● NEW	·
3	Ups and Downs	0.348	● NEW	✓
4	Buster	0.332	● NEW	·
5	Downward Facing Dog	0.326	● NEW	·
6	Meat	0.320	● NEW	·
7	Tailspin	0.310	● NEW	✓
8	Bat Country	0.306	● NEW	·
9	Moth	0.306	● NEW	·
10	Puebla	0.282	● NEW	✓
11	Not Coming Down	0.280	● NEW	·
12	Band in the Sky	0.274	● NEW	·
13	Giants	0.272	● NEW	✓
14	Rebubula	0.264	● NEW	·
15	Recreational Chemistry	0.264	● NEW	·
16	Wormwood	0.258	● NEW	·
17	Billy Goat	0.254	● NEW	✓
18	Brent Black	0.254	● NEW	·
19	Blue Jeans Pizza	0.250	● NEW	·
20	Lazarus	0.244	● NEW	·
21	Silver Sun	0.244	● NEW	·
22	Happy Hour Hero	0.240	● NEW	·
23	Letter Home	0.240	● NEW	·
24	Okayalright	0.240	● NEW	·
25	Timmy Tucker	0.240	● NEW	·
26	ATL	0.238	● NEW	·
27	32 Things	0.230	● NEW	·
28	Bearsong	0.230	● NEW	·
29	Plane Crash	0.228	● NEW	·
30	Ricky Marten	0.226	● NEW	·

missed: Crab Eyes, Haze, The Pit, Tomorrow Is Another Day, Tubing the River Styx

● PLAYED2026-06-121

13% turned over vs our initial pick · 2 syncs

called 38%

expected 27%

actual 17%

called 5/13 of the set · expected / actual = of the 30-pool

#	song	conf	Δ
1	Yellow Tigers	0.404	▲12	✓
2	In Stride	0.362	▲2	·
3	Downward Facing Dog	0.336	▼1	·
4	Buster	0.328	▼3	✓
5	Moth	0.314	▲15	·
6	Meat	0.302	▲8	·
7	Rebubula	0.302	▲3	·
8	Recreational Chemistry	0.298	▲13	·
9	Bat Country	0.296	▼2	✓
10	Ups and Downs	0.296	▼4	·
11	Band in the Sky	0.290	▼3	✓
12	Letter Home	0.290	● NEW	·
13	The Pit	0.276	▼4	·
14	Puebla	0.274	▼2	·
15	Giants	0.272	▼10	·
16	Okayalright	0.258	▲7	·
17	Captain America	0.252	▼2	✓
18	Tambourine	0.252	▼7	·
19	Billy Goat	0.248	▲8	·
20	Blue Jeans Pizza	0.244	▲10	·
21	Lazarus	0.238	▼3	·
22	Not Coming Down	0.238	● NEW	·
23	Silver Sun	0.238	▼20	·
24	Tailspin	0.238	▲5	·
25	ATL	0.236	● NEW	·
26	Bearsong	0.236	▼9	·
27	Brent Black	0.230	● NEW	·
28	Timmy Tucker	0.230	▼12	·
29	Ricky Marten	0.228	▼3	·
30	Wormwood	0.228	▼8	·

missed: I Wanna Be Sedated, Life During Wartime, New York City, Ophelia, Plane Crash, The Silent Type, Threw It All Away, Where Does the Time Go?

● PLAYED2026-06-131

53% turned over vs our initial pick · 3 syncs

called 50%

expected 28%

actual 17%

called 5/10 of the set · expected / actual = of the 30-pool

#	song	conf	Δ
1	Yellow Tigers	0.412	▲4	·
2	In Stride	0.390	▲4	✓
3	Bat Country	0.352	▲1	·
4	Buster	0.350	▼3	·
5	Downward Facing Dog	0.318	▲4	·
6	Rebubula	0.304	▲15	✓
7	Ups and Downs	0.298	—	·
8	Giants	0.290	▼5	·
9	Silver Sun	0.290	▲7	·
10	Meat	0.288	—	·
11	Tailspin	0.278	▼9	·
12	Moth	0.270	▲3	·
13	Band in the Sky	0.268	▼2	·
14	Captain America	0.268	▼6	·
15	Ricky Marten	0.268	● NEW	·
16	ATL	0.266	▲6	✓
17	Letter Home	0.264	● NEW	·
18	Puebla	0.264	▼6	·
19	Timmy Tucker	0.258	● NEW	·
20	Happy Hour Hero	0.254	● NEW	✓
21	Tambourine	0.252	▼2	·
22	Wormwood	0.252	▼2	·
23	Mar De Ma	0.244	● NEW	·
24	Recreational Chemistry	0.244	▼6	·
25	Blue Jeans Pizza	0.242	▲3	✓
26	Lazarus	0.242	▼12	·
27	The Pit	0.238	▲2	·
28	Kyle's Song	0.236	● NEW	·
29	Not Coming Down	0.234	● NEW	·
30	Billy Goat	0.232	▼4	·

missed: All Roads Lead to Home, Four, Locomotive Breath, Seat of My Pants, Sensory Deprivation Bank

● PLAYED2026-06-142

30% turned over vs our initial pick · 4 syncs

called 29%

expected 28%

actual 13%

called 4/14 of the set · expected / actual = of the 30-pool

#	song	conf	Δ
1	Yellow Tigers	0.390	▲1	·
2	Meat	0.350	▲2	✓
3	In Stride	0.336	▲2	·
4	Buster	0.330	▲14	·
5	Bat Country	0.324	▲24	·
6	Ups and Downs	0.324	▼5	·
7	Downward Facing Dog	0.322	▼4	✓
8	Silver Sun	0.292	▲1	·
9	Giants	0.288	▲18	·
10	Ricky Marten	0.280	▲20	·
11	Tailspin	0.278	▲8	·
12	Puebla	0.274	▲12	·
13	Rebubula	0.272	▲8	·
14	Tambourine	0.272	● NEW	·
15	George	0.264	▼1	·
16	Lazarus	0.264	▼10	·
17	Band in the Sky	0.260	—	·
18	Recreational Chemistry	0.258	● NEW	·
19	Letter Home	0.256	▼12	·
20	Not Coming Down	0.254	▼12	✓
21	Bearsong	0.244	● NEW	·
22	Timmy Tucker	0.242	—	·
23	Blue Jeans Pizza	0.238	▲3	·
24	Happy Hour Hero	0.238	● NEW	·
25	Okayalright	0.238	● NEW	✓
26	Wormwood	0.236	▲2	·
27	Moth	0.234	▼7	·
28	The Pit	0.234	● NEW	·
29	ATL	0.232	▼16	·
30	Seat of My Pants	0.230	▼15	·

missed: 32 Things, Fuck Her Gently, In the Kitchen, Kyle's Song, She Sends Me, Space Truckin', Spine of a Dog, Three Eyed Serpent, Wind It Up, Young Lust

● PLAYED2026-06-175

30% turned over vs our initial pick · 5 syncs

called 8%

expected 28%

actual 3%

called 1/12 of the set · expected / actual = of the 30-pool

#	song	conf	Δ
1	In Stride	0.380	▲8	·
2	Yellow Tigers	0.374	▲1	·
3	Buster	0.314	▲1	·
4	Giants	0.312	▲12	·
5	Lazarus	0.310	▲13	·
6	Downward Facing Dog	0.304	▼5	·
7	Ups and Downs	0.300	▲5	·
8	Tailspin	0.288	● NEW	·
9	Bat Country	0.286	▼1	·
10	Wormwood	0.286	● NEW	·
11	Meat	0.284	▼9	·
12	Rebubula	0.278	● NEW	·
13	Captain America	0.276	● NEW	·
14	Puebla	0.270	—	·
15	Recreational Chemistry	0.270	▲10	·
16	Okayalright	0.268	▼6	·
17	Tambourine	0.258	▲11	·
18	Not Coming Down	0.256	▲2	·
19	Band in the Sky	0.254	—	·
20	Moth	0.254	▲3	✓
21	Blue Jeans Pizza	0.252	▼14	·
22	George	0.250	▼7	·
23	Stranger Than Fiction	0.250	● NEW	·
24	Billy Goat	0.248	▼18	·
25	Bearsong	0.246	▲2	·
26	32 Things	0.242	● NEW	·
27	McBain	0.242	▼14	·
28	Ricky Marten	0.242	● NEW	·
29	Seat of My Pants	0.242	● NEW	·
30	Letter Home	0.240	▼13	·

missed: Cathedral, Cut the Cable, Eminence Front, Gone, Hi & Lo, Living Again, Nebraska, Old Things, Silver Sun, Water, Where Does the Time Go?

● PLAYED2026-06-181

43% turned over vs our initial pick · 6 syncs

called 50%

expected 28%

actual 13%

called 4/8 of the set · expected / actual = of the 30-pool

#	song	conf	Δ
1	Yellow Tigers	0.382	▲1	✓
2	In Stride	0.368	▲1	·
3	Ups and Downs	0.346	▼2	·
4	Buster	0.332	—	·
5	Giants	0.310	▲14	·
6	Bat Country	0.300	▲4	✓
7	Lazarus	0.298	▲4	·
8	Not Coming Down	0.292	▲9	·
9	Silver Sun	0.292	▼3	·
10	Puebla	0.290	▼5	·
11	Timmy Tucker	0.282	▲7	·
12	Wormwood	0.280	▼5	·
13	George	0.274	▲17	✓
14	Billy Goat	0.270	● NEW	·
15	Letter Home	0.270	▼7	·
16	Meat	0.270	▲4	·
17	Moth	0.270	● NEW	·
18	Downward Facing Dog	0.258	▲6	·
19	Recreational Chemistry	0.256	▼10	✓
20	Tailspin	0.256	▲7	·
21	Ricky Marten	0.250	● NEW	·
22	Band in the Sky	0.246	▼7	·
23	Rebubula	0.246	▼11	·
24	Tambourine	0.244	● NEW	·
25	The Pit	0.240	● NEW	·
26	Okayalright	0.234	● NEW	·
27	Blue Jeans Pizza	0.232	▲2	·
28	Happy Hour Hero	0.232	▼12	·
29	Big World	0.230	▼1	·
30	Stranger Than Fiction	0.230	● NEW	·

missed: Crushing, Don't Fuck With Flo, Jazz Cigarette, New Hope for the New Year

● PLAYED2026-06-192

37% turned over vs our initial pick · 7 syncs

called 30%

expected 28%

actual 10%

called 3/10 of the set · expected / actual = of the 30-pool

#	song	conf	Δ
1	Yellow Tigers	0.368	—	·
2	Lazarus	0.342	▲5	·
3	Ups and Downs	0.328	▲5	·
4	In Stride	0.314	▼1	✓
5	Buster	0.312	▼1	·
6	Giants	0.310	—	·
7	Puebla	0.300	▲4	·
8	Tailspin	0.296	▲6	·
9	Bat Country	0.292	● NEW	·
10	Silver Sun	0.284	▲12	·
11	Meat	0.282	▲5	·
12	Rebubula	0.282	▼7	·
13	Moth	0.280	▼11	·
14	Billy Goat	0.274	● NEW	·
15	Not Coming Down	0.274	● NEW	·
16	Ricky Marten	0.270	▼6	·
17	Brent Black	0.268	▼8	·
18	Band in the Sky	0.266	● NEW	·
19	Letter Home	0.262	● NEW	·
20	Timmy Tucker	0.262	● NEW	✓
21	Stranger Than Fiction	0.258	▲9	·
22	Wormwood	0.258	▼5	·
23	Okayalright	0.256	▼4	·
24	Downward Facing Dog	0.254	▼11	·
25	Blue Jeans Pizza	0.250	● NEW	·
26	Tambourine	0.242	▼2	·
27	Plane Crash	0.236	▼7	✓
28	Recreational Chemistry	0.230	▼16	·
29	The Road	0.228	▼14	·
30	McBain	0.224	▼2	·

missed: Bring You Down, Bullet, Happy Hour Hero, In Memory of Elizabeth Reed, Jazz Wank, St. Augustine, The Linear

● PLAYED2026-06-201

27% turned over vs our initial pick · 8 syncs

called 31%

expected 28%

actual 13%

called 4/13 of the set · expected / actual = of the 30-pool

#	song	conf	Δ
1	Yellow Tigers	0.362	—	·
2	Giants	0.356	▲1	·
3	Buster	0.344	▼1	✓
4	In Stride	0.344	—	·
5	Bat Country	0.310	—	·
6	Ups and Downs	0.304	▲1	·
7	Rebubula	0.298	▲14	·
8	Lazarus	0.292	▲1	·
9	Meat	0.288	● NEW	·
10	McBain	0.284	● NEW	·
11	Wormwood	0.282	▼5	·
12	Blue Jeans Pizza	0.276	▲6	·
13	Silver Sun	0.274	● NEW	·
14	Band in the Sky	0.270	▼4	·
15	Moth	0.268	▼4	·
16	Tailspin	0.268	▼8	·
17	Brent Black	0.266	▲5	✓
18	Puebla	0.264	▲1	·
19	Happy Hour Hero	0.262	● NEW	·
20	Okayalright	0.260	● NEW	·
21	Not Coming Down	0.258	▲3	·
22	Recreational Chemistry	0.258	▲4	·
23	Letter Home	0.254	▼9	·
24	Tambourine	0.254	▲5	✓
25	Downward Facing Dog	0.246	▼13	·
26	The Pit	0.244	● NEW	·
27	Timmy Tucker	0.240	▼14	·
28	Stranger Than Fiction	0.238	● NEW	✓
29	Seat of My Pants	0.232	▼2	·
30	Bearsong	0.228	▼5	·

missed: Carpet Crawlers, Crab Eyes, It, Mexico, No Quarter, Shoot First, Spaz Medicine, Waiting for the Punchline, hajimeshite

● PLAYED2026-06-211

33% turned over vs our initial pick · 9 syncs

called 86%

expected 28%

actual 20%

called 6/7 of the set · expected / actual = of the 30-pool

#	song	conf	Δ
1	Yellow Tigers	0.384	▲2	·
2	Giants	0.346	▲4	✓
3	Ups and Downs	0.338	▲1	·
4	In Stride	0.336	▲4	·
5	Bat Country	0.328	▲6	·
6	Puebla	0.328	▲3	·
7	Lazarus	0.316	▼5	·
8	Tailspin	0.314	▲2	·
9	Buster	0.302	▼4	·
10	Letter Home	0.292	▲10	·
11	Moth	0.288	▲7	·
12	Band in the Sky	0.282	▼5	·
13	Rebubula	0.278	● NEW	✓
14	Wormwood	0.278	▼13	·
15	Silver Sun	0.274	—	·
16	Downward Facing Dog	0.272	—	·
17	Captain America	0.260	▲2	✓
18	Meat	0.260	▼5	·
19	Blue Jeans Pizza	0.246	▲10	·
20	Opium	0.246	● NEW	✓
21	The Pit	0.246	▲2	·
22	Okayalright	0.244	▼8	·
23	Timmy Tucker	0.242	● NEW	·
24	Not Coming Down	0.240	▲1	·
25	Recreational Chemistry	0.236	▲2	·
26	Billy Goat	0.234	▼9	·
27	McBain	0.234	▼3	✓
28	George	0.230	● NEW	·
29	Shoot First	0.230	● NEW	·
30	Ricky Marten	0.228	▼9	✓

missed: Big World

● PLAYED2026-06-261

30% turned over vs our initial pick · 10 syncs

called 29%

expected 28%

actual 13%

called 4/14 of the set · expected / actual = of the 30-pool

#	song	conf	Δ
1	Ups and Downs	0.382	▲4	·
2	In Stride	0.374	▲4	·
3	Yellow Tigers	0.350	▲4	·
4	Band in the Sky	0.348	▲4	·
5	Lazarus	0.348	▼3	·
6	Buster	0.330	▼3	✓
7	Tailspin	0.322	▲4	·
8	Bat Country	0.312	▲15	·
9	Puebla	0.298	—	·
10	Blue Jeans Pizza	0.284	● NEW	·
11	Downward Facing Dog	0.280	▼1	·
12	Meat	0.274	▲8	·
13	Wormwood	0.274	▼9	·
14	Not Coming Down	0.272	● NEW	·
15	Moth	0.262	▲2	·
16	ATL	0.256	● NEW	·
17	Captain America	0.254	▲12	·
18	Okayalright	0.254	● NEW	·
19	Letter Home	0.252	—	·
20	Rebubula	0.252	▼6	·
21	Seat of My Pants	0.252	▲9	·
22	The Pit	0.250	▼1	✓
23	Giants	0.240	▼22	·
24	Happy Hour Hero	0.234	▼2	·
25	Crab Eyes	0.232	● NEW	·
26	Shoot First	0.232	● NEW	·
27	Silver Sun	0.232	▼12	✓
28	Bring You Down	0.230	● NEW	·
29	Billy Goat	0.228	● NEW	✓
30	Four	0.228	● NEW	·

missed: All Roads Lead to Home, Casey Jones, Kyle's Song, Recreational Chemistry, Ricky Marten, Skitchin' Buffalo, Stranger Than Fiction, The Low Spark of High Heeled Boys, The Road, Three Eyed Serpent

● PLAYED2026-06-271Pine Creek Lodge — Livingston, MT

70% turned over vs our initial pick · 11 syncs

called 38%

expected 31%

actual 17%

called 5/13 of the set · expected / actual = of the 30-pool

#	song	conf	Δ
1	Yellow Tigers	0.398	▲1	✓
2	Band in the Sky	0.390	▲12	·
3	Puebla	0.386	—	✓
4	Ups and Downs	0.380	▲9	·
5	In Stride	0.376	▲14	✓
6	Lazarus	0.374	▼5	·
7	Tailspin	0.372	▼1	·
8	Buster	0.346	▼3	·
9	Wormwood	0.344	▼5	·
10	Bat Country	0.332	—	·
11	Rebubula	0.332	▼2	✓
12	Blue Jeans Pizza	0.324	▲4	·
13	Meat	0.318	● NEW	·
14	Downward Facing Dog	0.306	● NEW	·
15	Giants	0.304	▼7	·
16	Recreational Chemistry	0.302	▼4	·
17	The Pit	0.290	▼10	·
18	Moth	0.286	▲4	·
19	Mar De Ma	0.278	▲2	✓
20	Billy Goat	0.274	▼3	·
21	Not Coming Down	0.274	● NEW	·
22	Okayalright	0.272	▲2	·
23	Captain America	0.270	● NEW	·
24	Letter Home	0.266	▼13	·
25	Timmy Tucker	0.266	▲4	·
26	Four	0.262	● NEW	·
27	George	0.262	● NEW	·
28	Silver Sun	0.260	● NEW	·
29	Happy Hour Hero	0.258	▼2	·
30	Shoot First	0.254	● NEW	·

missed: Brent Black, Can't Find My Way Home, Immigrant Song, In Memory of Elizabeth Reed, Jazz Wank, McBain, Same Old Story, Time Ed

● PLAYED2026-07-043Saratoga Performing Arts Center — Saratoga Springs, NY

37% turned over vs our initial pick · 12 syncs

called 78%

expected 30%

actual 23%

called 7/9 of the set · expected / actual = of the 30-pool

#	song	conf	Δ
1	Yellow Tigers	0.414	▲2	✓
2	In Stride	0.410	▲3	·
3	Band in the Sky	0.408	▲10	·
4	Tailspin	0.362	▲8	·
5	Ups and Downs	0.362	▼4	✓
6	Buster	0.360	▲14	·
7	Lazarus	0.356	▲2	·
8	Wormwood	0.352	▲2	·
9	Moth	0.324	▲2	·
10	Meat	0.320	▲7	·
11	Bat Country	0.308	▼7	✓
12	Giants	0.308	▲11	·
13	Blue Jeans Pizza	0.298	● NEW	·
14	Puebla	0.292	▲1	·
15	Silver Sun	0.290	▼8	·
16	Letter Home	0.288	▼10	·
17	Downward Facing Dog	0.280	▼1	·
18	Rebubula	0.268	▼16	✓
19	Billy Goat	0.266	▼5	·
20	Captain America	0.266	● NEW	✓
21	Happy Hour Hero	0.266	● NEW	✓
22	Okayalright	0.254	▼3	✓
23	Bring You Down	0.250	● NEW	·
24	The Pit	0.248	▲2	·
25	Plane Crash	0.246	● NEW	·
26	Recreational Chemistry	0.246	● NEW	·
27	Head	0.238	● NEW	·
28	Not Coming Down	0.238	▼10	·
29	ATL	0.236	● NEW	·
30	Water	0.236	● NEW	·

missed: Three Eyed Serpent, Wind It Up

● PLAYED2026-07-09Roanoke Island Festival Park — Manteo, NC

20% turned over vs our initial pick · 13 syncs

called 12%

expected 27%

actual 3%

called 1/8 of the set · expected / actual = of the 30-pool

#	song	conf	Δ
1	In Stride	0.364	▲17	✓
2	Lazarus	0.356	▼1	·
3	Tailspin	0.344	—	·
4	Band in the Sky	0.342	▲6	·
5	Yellow Tigers	0.334	▲2	·
6	Wormwood	0.332	—	·
7	Blue Jeans Pizza	0.318	▲2	·
8	Meat	0.306	▼3	·
9	Giants	0.286	▲11	·
10	Rebubula	0.280	▲15	·
11	Buster	0.278	—	·
12	Downward Facing Dog	0.278	▲2	·
13	Moth	0.278	▼1	·
14	Puebla	0.278	▲10	·
15	Bat Country	0.262	▼11	·
16	Not Coming Down	0.258	▼8	·
17	Billy Goat	0.248	▲12	·
18	Okayalright	0.246	▼3	·
19	Silver Sun	0.242	▲2	·
20	Ups and Downs	0.242	▼18	·
21	Letter Home	0.226	▼2	·
22	Recreational Chemistry	0.226	▼9	·
23	Plane Crash	0.224	● NEW	·
24	ATL	0.220	▲3	·
25	Head	0.220	● NEW	·
26	Big World	0.218	● NEW	·
27	Brent Black	0.216	▲1	·
28	Captain America	0.214	▼6	·
29	Happy Hour Hero	0.214	● NEW	·
30	The Pit	0.208	▼14	·

missed: Down Under, Four, Old Things, Opium, The Other One, The Silent Type, Timmy Tucker

● PLAYED2026-07-10The Amp Ballantyne — Charlotte, NC

17% turned over vs our initial pick · 14 syncs

called 50%

expected 27%

actual 17%

called 5/10 of the set · expected / actual = of the 30-pool

#	song	conf	Δ
1	Lazarus	0.400	—	·
2	Band in the Sky	0.378	▲1	·
3	Yellow Tigers	0.338	▲1	·
4	Tailspin	0.328	▲4	·
5	In Stride	0.316	—	·
6	Wormwood	0.316	▲3	·
7	Buster	0.314	▼5	✓
8	Not Coming Down	0.298	▲5	·
9	Meat	0.296	▼3	·
10	Ups and Downs	0.284	▲1	·
11	Giants	0.282	▲6	✓
12	Rebubula	0.280	▲6	·
13	Moth	0.276	▲7	·
14	Bat Country	0.270	▼7	·
15	Billy Goat	0.264	▲8	✓
16	Seat of My Pants	0.262	▲6	·
17	Blue Jeans Pizza	0.256	▼3	·
18	Downward Facing Dog	0.256	▼8	·
19	Puebla	0.248	▲5	·
20	Silver Sun	0.244	▼1	✓
21	The Pit	0.242	▲7	·
22	Happy Hour Hero	0.240	▲3	✓
23	Recreational Chemistry	0.240	▼2	·
24	Captain America	0.236	▼12	·
25	Letter Home	0.236	▼10	·
26	Bearsong	0.220	—	·
27	Tomorrow Is Another Day	0.216	● NEW	·
28	Okayalright	0.210	▼1	·
29	Plane Crash	0.210	● NEW	·
30	Brent Black	0.208	● NEW	·

missed: Bullet, Can't Find My Way Home, Immigrant Song, Kyle's Song, Skitchin' Buffalo

● PLAYED2026-07-11Sand Mountain Amphitheater — Albertville, AL

23% turned over vs our initial pick · 15 syncs

called 40%

expected 27%

actual 7%

called 2/5 of the set · expected / actual = of the 30-pool

#	song	conf	Δ
1	Lazarus	0.410	▲14	·
2	Yellow Tigers	0.368	▲12	·
3	Tailspin	0.366	▼1	·
4	Band in the Sky	0.352	▲6	·
5	Ups and Downs	0.316	▲15	·
6	Buster	0.306	▲5	·
7	Meat	0.300	▼6	✓
8	Wormwood	0.300	▲4	·
9	In Stride	0.296	—	·
10	Downward Facing Dog	0.284	▼6	·
11	Giants	0.278	▲8	·
12	Puebla	0.278	▲5	·
13	Blue Jeans Pizza	0.274	▼7	·
14	Moth	0.272	▼11	·
15	Bat Country	0.270	▼2	·
16	Silver Sun	0.268	—	·
17	Rebubula	0.266	▲10	·
18	Not Coming Down	0.254	▼13	·
19	Recreational Chemistry	0.250	▲2	·
20	Letter Home	0.238	▲8	·
21	ATL	0.228	▼14	✓
22	Head	0.228	● NEW	·
23	Tubing the River Styx	0.228	● NEW	·
24	Bearsong	0.224	▲6	·
25	Kyle's Song	0.224	—	·
26	Billy Goat	0.220	▼2	·
27	Seat of My Pants	0.220	▼4	·
28	The Pit	0.214	● NEW	·
29	Okayalright	0.212	● NEW	·
30	Timmy Tucker	0.212	● NEW	·

missed: Brent Black, Cathedral, Stranger Than Fiction

○ UPCOMING2026-07-12The Refinery Charleston — Charleston, SC

20% turned over vs our initial pick · 16 syncs

expected 27%

actual —

rates of the 30-pool · actual after the show

#	song	conf	Δ
1	Band in the Sky	0.356	▲1
2	Yellow Tigers	0.344	▲3
3	In Stride	0.340	▲7
4	Tailspin	0.332	—
5	Wormwood	0.332	▼4
6	Lazarus	0.330	▲13
7	Giants	0.328	▲11
8	Buster	0.326	▲12
9	Downward Facing Dog	0.316	—
10	Blue Jeans Pizza	0.310	▲2
11	Moth	0.296	▼4
12	Rebubula	0.276	▲1
13	Not Coming Down	0.274	▼7
14	Bat Country	0.268	▼6
15	Meat	0.256	▼12
16	Silver Sun	0.254	▲8
17	Captain America	0.250	▲4
18	Letter Home	0.246	▲4
19	Ups and Downs	0.236	▼8
20	Puebla	0.228	▼5
21	Seat of My Pants	0.228	● NEW
22	Plane Crash	0.224	▲4
23	George	0.222	● NEW
24	Mexico	0.218	● NEW
25	Happy Hour Hero	0.214	▲5
26	Billy Goat	0.210	▼9
27	New Hope for the New Year	0.208	● NEW
28	Recreational Chemistry	0.206	● NEW
29	Head	0.204	● NEW
30	Okayalright	0.204	▼7

○ UPCOMING2026-07-16moe.down music festival — Gilbert, PA

70% turned over vs our initial pick · 16 syncs

expected 29%

actual —

rates of the 30-pool · actual after the show

#	song	conf	Δ
1	Band in the Sky	0.346	● NEW
2	Wormwood	0.328	● NEW
3	Downward Facing Dog	0.322	● NEW
4	Tailspin	0.318	● NEW
5	Lazarus	0.316	● NEW
6	Seat of My Pants	0.310	● NEW
7	Water	0.302	▼6
8	Yellow Tigers	0.300	● NEW
9	Puebla	0.296	● NEW
10	Rebubula	0.296	● NEW
11	Blue Jeans Pizza	0.292	● NEW
12	In Stride	0.290	● NEW
13	Moth	0.284	● NEW
14	Ups and Downs	0.282	● NEW
15	Bullet	0.280	▼6
16	Giants	0.280	● NEW
17	Plane Crash	0.276	● NEW
18	Okayalright	0.274	● NEW
19	Sensory Deprivation Bank	0.272	▼9
20	The Road	0.272	▲1
21	Bat Country	0.270	● NEW
22	Meat	0.270	● NEW
23	Tubing the River Styx	0.270	● NEW
24	Opium	0.266	▼12
25	Buster	0.264	● NEW
26	Four	0.264	● NEW
27	Big World	0.262	▼23
28	Happy Hour Hero	0.258	● NEW
29	The Pit	0.258	● NEW
30	George	0.256	● NEW

○ UPCOMING2026-07-17moe.down music festival — Gilbert, PA

70% turned over vs our initial pick · 16 syncs

expected 27%

actual —

rates of the 30-pool · actual after the show

#	song	conf	Δ
1	Sensory Deprivation Bank	0.298	▲11
2	Four	0.290	▲21
3	Big World	0.288	● NEW
4	St. Augustine	0.286	▲18
5	The Pit	0.280	● NEW
6	Skrunk	0.278	● NEW
7	Crab Eyes	0.276	● NEW
8	Crushing	0.276	▲10
9	Mar De Ma	0.272	● NEW
10	Rise	0.272	● NEW
11	Bearsong	0.270	● NEW
12	Dangerous Game	0.270	● NEW
13	Bat Country	0.268	▼5
14	Opium	0.264	▼3
15	Yodelittle	0.262	● NEW
16	Head	0.258	● NEW
17	Jazz Wank	0.258	● NEW
18	Moth	0.258	▼3
19	Threw It All Away	0.258	● NEW
20	Hi & Lo	0.256	● NEW
21	Bring You Down	0.254	● NEW
22	Bullet	0.254	● NEW
23	Deep This Time	0.254	● NEW
24	Plane Crash	0.254	▼14
25	Recreational Chemistry	0.254	▼9
26	ATL	0.252	▼7
27	New Hope for the New Year	0.250	—
28	Living Again	0.248	● NEW
29	Seat of My Pants	0.248	▼23
30	Silver Sun	0.246	● NEW

○ UPCOMING2026-07-18moe.down music festival — Gilbert, PA

37% turned over vs our initial pick · 16 syncs

expected 27%

actual —

rates of the 30-pool · actual after the show

#	song	conf	Δ
1	Yellow Tigers	0.322	▲1
2	Buster	0.302	▲13
3	In Stride	0.300	▲3
4	Giants	0.292	▲14
5	Ups and Downs	0.288	▲5
6	Downward Facing Dog	0.286	▲10
7	Silver Sun	0.284	▼2
8	Nebraska	0.282	● NEW
9	Blue Jeans Pizza	0.280	▲16
10	Mexico	0.280	● NEW
11	Brent Black	0.278	● NEW
12	Billy Goat	0.272	▲8
13	Meat	0.272	▲6
14	32 Things	0.270	● NEW
15	Captain America	0.270	● NEW
16	Happy Hour Hero	0.268	▲5
17	Understand	0.268	● NEW
18	Band in the Sky	0.264	▼11
19	Puebla	0.262	▼10
20	Moth	0.258	▼9
21	Timmy Tucker	0.258	▼8
22	Bat Country	0.256	▼19
23	Tomorrow Is Another Day	0.256	● NEW
24	Kyle's Song	0.254	▼1
25	Plane Crash	0.254	● NEW
26	Rebubula	0.254	▼14
27	Tubing the River Styx	0.254	● NEW
28	Shoot First	0.252	● NEW
29	Haze	0.250	● NEW
30	Seat of My Pants	0.250	● NEW

○ UPCOMING2026-07-31The Caverns — Pelham, TN

53% turned over vs our initial pick · 16 syncs

expected 27%

actual —

rates of the 30-pool · actual after the show

#	song	conf	Δ
1	Yellow Tigers	0.322	● NEW
2	In Stride	0.320	▲21
3	Buster	0.304	▲11
4	Giants	0.286	—
5	Blue Jeans Pizza	0.284	▲11
6	Rebubula	0.284	▲21
7	Bat Country	0.282	▲17
8	Tailspin	0.278	▲20
9	Band in the Sky	0.274	▼1
10	Happy Hour Hero	0.274	▲2
11	Ups and Downs	0.274	● NEW
12	Downward Facing Dog	0.272	▼7
13	Puebla	0.272	● NEW
14	Bullet	0.266	● NEW
15	Captain America	0.266	▼5
16	Meat	0.262	▼10
17	Moth	0.262	▲2
18	Plane Crash	0.260	● NEW
19	Recreational Chemistry	0.260	● NEW
20	Ricky Marten	0.260	▲10
21	Wormwood	0.260	—
22	Gone	0.258	● NEW
23	Billy Goat	0.256	● NEW
24	Lazarus	0.256	● NEW
25	Okayalright	0.256	▼23
26	Water	0.254	▼6
27	Silver Sun	0.250	● NEW
28	Four	0.248	● NEW
29	Not Coming Down	0.248	▼18
30	32 Things	0.246	▼5

○ UPCOMING2026-08-01The Caverns — Pelham, TN

40% turned over vs our initial pick · 16 syncs

expected 26%

actual —

rates of the 30-pool · actual after the show

#	song	conf	Δ
1	Bat Country	0.288	▲5
2	Mar De Ma	0.288	● NEW
3	The Pit	0.280	▲22
4	Big World	0.278	● NEW
5	Meat	0.276	● NEW
6	Rebubula	0.276	▲16
7	Wormwood	0.274	▲12
8	Four	0.272	▲21
9	Downward Facing Dog	0.268	▲3
10	Giants	0.268	▲20
11	Lazarus	0.268	● NEW
12	Z0Z (Zed Nought Z)	0.268	● NEW
13	Silver Sun	0.264	● NEW
14	Timmy Tucker	0.264	● NEW
15	Ups and Downs	0.264	▼13
16	Buster	0.262	▼12
17	George	0.260	● NEW
18	Okayalright	0.258	● NEW
19	Bring You Down	0.256	▼4
20	Living Again	0.256	▼9
21	Seat of My Pants	0.256	▼13
22	Crab Eyes	0.254	▲5
23	Opium	0.254	● NEW
24	Bullet	0.250	▼1
25	Moth	0.250	▼15
26	Recreational Chemistry	0.250	▼10
27	Happy Hour Hero	0.248	● NEW
28	Haze	0.248	● NEW
29	Puebla	0.248	▼11
30	The Road	0.246	● NEW

○ UPCOMING2026-08-12Frederik Meijer Gardens Amphitheater — Grand Rapids, MI

23% turned over vs our initial pick · 16 syncs

expected 26%

actual —

rates of the 30-pool · actual after the show

#	song	conf	Δ
1	Buster	0.304	▲15
2	Ups and Downs	0.294	▲6
3	Brent Black	0.286	▲17
4	Yellow Tigers	0.280	▼3
5	Tailspin	0.276	▲2
6	In Stride	0.272	▼4
7	Giants	0.264	▲22
8	Meat	0.264	▲4
9	New Hope for the New Year	0.262	● NEW
10	Mexico	0.260	● NEW
11	Silver Sun	0.260	▼2
12	Water	0.258	● NEW
13	Billy Goat	0.254	▼3
14	Not Coming Down	0.254	▲5
15	Lazarus	0.252	▼12
16	Puebla	0.252	▼3
17	Downward Facing Dog	0.250	● NEW
18	George	0.250	● NEW
19	Rebubula	0.250	▼13
20	Happy Hour Hero	0.244	▼2
21	Moth	0.244	▲5
22	Four	0.242	—
23	Tubing the River Styx	0.242	● NEW
24	32 Things	0.240	● NEW
25	Bat Country	0.238	▼20
26	Seat of My Pants	0.238	▼2
27	The Pit	0.238	● NEW
28	Wormwood	0.238	▼7
29	Okayalright	0.236	● NEW
30	Recreational Chemistry	0.234	▼26

○ UPCOMING2026-08-13Everwise Amphitheater — White River State Park, Indianapolis, IN

20% turned over vs our initial pick · 16 syncs

expected 26%

actual —

rates of the 30-pool · actual after the show

#	song	conf	Δ
1	In Stride	0.316	▲5
2	Yellow Tigers	0.312	▲1
3	Downward Facing Dog	0.304	▲6
4	Band in the Sky	0.290	▲12
5	Blue Jeans Pizza	0.290	● NEW
6	Bat Country	0.288	▲17
7	Giants	0.276	▼6
8	Meat	0.276	▲3
9	Happy Hour Hero	0.274	▲4
10	Ups and Downs	0.264	▲5
11	Plane Crash	0.260	● NEW
12	Recreational Chemistry	0.260	● NEW
13	Seat of My Pants	0.260	● NEW
14	Buster	0.256	▼12
15	Moth	0.254	▼11
16	Rebubula	0.254	▲4
17	New Hope for the New Year	0.250	● NEW
18	Wormwood	0.250	▼13
19	Kyle's Song	0.246	● NEW
20	Not Coming Down	0.246	▼10
21	Okayalright	0.244	▲9
22	Tailspin	0.244	▼4
23	Mexico	0.240	● NEW
24	Puebla	0.240	▼10
25	32 Things	0.236	▼3
26	Silver Sun	0.236	▼14
27	Captain America	0.230	▼19
28	Bring You Down	0.226	● NEW
29	Billy Goat	0.222	—
30	Brent Black	0.222	▼6

○ UPCOMING2026-08-14Evans Amphitheater — Cain Park, Cleveland Heights, OH

23% turned over vs our initial pick · 16 syncs

expected 25%

actual —

rates of the 30-pool · actual after the show

#	song	conf	Δ
1	Giants	0.280	▲22
2	The Pit	0.276	▲27
3	Rebubula	0.274	▲24
4	Buster	0.272	▲8
5	Captain America	0.272	▲17
6	Moth	0.272	—
7	Silver Sun	0.272	▲9
8	Lazarus	0.270	▲20
9	Not Coming Down	0.270	▲15
10	Puebla	0.268	▼6
11	Okayalright	0.266	▲14
12	Yellow Tigers	0.262	▼7
13	Billy Goat	0.260	▲4
14	Bring You Down	0.260	● NEW
15	Bat Country	0.258	▼7
16	Blue Jeans Pizza	0.256	▼6
17	Meat	0.254	▼15
18	In Stride	0.250	▼17
19	Band in the Sky	0.244	▼5
20	Kyle's Song	0.244	● NEW
21	Happy Hour Hero	0.242	▼1
22	Wormwood	0.242	▼4
23	Brent Black	0.240	● NEW
24	Water	0.240	● NEW
25	Recreational Chemistry	0.238	▼12
26	Plane Crash	0.236	▼5
27	Seat of My Pants	0.228	▼20
28	Timmy Tucker	0.228	▼2
29	Ups and Downs	0.228	▼26
30	Downward Facing Dog	0.226	▼21

○ UPCOMING2026-08-15Ravinia Festival, Highland Park, IL

20% turned over vs our initial pick · 16 syncs

expected 26%

actual —

rates of the 30-pool · actual after the show

#	song	conf	Δ
1	Buster	0.306	▲9
2	Rebubula	0.286	▲1
3	Timmy Tucker	0.286	▲21
4	Ups and Downs	0.286	—
5	Billy Goat	0.282	▲17
6	Silver Sun	0.276	● NEW
7	Tailspin	0.272	▲5
8	Giants	0.270	▼1
9	Kyle's Song	0.268	▲2
10	Bat Country	0.264	▼8
11	Yellow Tigers	0.264	▼10
12	In Stride	0.260	▲5
13	Lazarus	0.260	▲1
14	George	0.258	▲9
15	The Pit	0.252	▼6
16	Brent Black	0.250	● NEW
17	Bullet	0.250	● NEW
18	New Hope for the New Year	0.250	● NEW
19	Okayalright	0.248	▼11
20	Puebla	0.246	▼7
21	32 Things	0.244	▼3
22	Downward Facing Dog	0.242	▲7
23	Moth	0.242	▼7
24	Plane Crash	0.240	▼4
25	Captain America	0.238	▼6
26	Meat	0.238	▼11
27	Band in the Sky	0.232	▼6
28	Blue Jeans Pizza	0.230	▼23
29	Bring You Down	0.230	▼2
30	Happy Hour Hero	0.230	● NEW

○ UPCOMING2026-08-19Knuckleheads Saloon — Kansas City, MO

43% turned over vs our initial pick · 16 syncs

expected 28%

actual —

rates of the 30-pool · actual after the show

#	song	conf	Δ
1	Wind It Up	0.352	● NEW
2	It	0.334	● NEW
3	Crushing	0.332	▲3
4	Shoot First	0.328	● NEW
5	Opium	0.326	▲5
6	St. Augustine	0.320	▲1
7	Crab Eyes	0.318	▲1
8	Big World	0.308	● NEW
9	Head	0.308	—
10	Hi & Lo	0.308	● NEW
11	The Road	0.304	▼10
12	Living Again	0.302	▼9
13	Haze	0.300	▼8
14	All Roads Lead to Home	0.294	● NEW
15	ATL	0.284	● NEW
16	Sensory Deprivation Bank	0.284	▲1
17	In Stride	0.282	▼3
18	Yellow Tigers	0.272	▲2
19	Bat Country	0.254	▲6
20	Ups and Downs	0.250	▼2
21	Giants	0.248	▼2
22	Tomorrow Is Another Day	0.248	▼6
23	Blue Jeans Pizza	0.244	● NEW
24	Rebubula	0.244	● NEW
25	Recreational Chemistry	0.240	● NEW
26	Downward Facing Dog	0.238	▼2
27	Tailspin	0.236	● NEW
28	Water	0.236	▼26
29	Buster	0.234	▼7
30	Mar De Ma	0.234	● NEW

○ UPCOMING2026-08-20The Waiting Room Lounge — Omaha, NE

33% turned over vs our initial pick · 16 syncs

expected 26%

actual —

rates of the 30-pool · actual after the show

#	song	conf	Δ
1	Yellow Tigers	0.320	▲9
2	Moth	0.292	▲1
3	In Stride	0.286	▼1
4	Bat Country	0.280	▲2
5	Band in the Sky	0.278	● NEW
6	Meat	0.278	▲12
7	Crab Eyes	0.276	● NEW
8	The Pit	0.276	● NEW
9	George	0.274	● NEW
10	Giants	0.272	● NEW
11	Happy Hour Hero	0.272	▲10
12	Buster	0.270	▼11
13	Crushing	0.268	▲7
14	ATL	0.266	● NEW
15	Captain America	0.264	▲14
16	Puebla	0.264	▲14
17	Billy Goat	0.262	▲2
18	Recreational Chemistry	0.262	▼3
19	Haze	0.260	▲7
20	Kyle's Song	0.256	● NEW
21	The Road	0.252	● NEW
22	Threw It All Away	0.252	● NEW
23	Okayalright	0.250	● NEW
24	Hi & Lo	0.248	● NEW
25	Not Coming Down	0.248	▼16
26	Shoot First	0.248	▼1
27	Silver Sun	0.246	▼23
28	Bullet	0.244	▼17
29	Seat of My Pants	0.244	▼22
30	Big World	0.242	▼13

○ UPCOMING2026-08-21The Mishawaka — Bellvue, CO

43% turned over vs our initial pick · 16 syncs

expected 29%

actual —

rates of the 30-pool · actual after the show

#	song	conf	Δ
1	McBain	0.328	▲7
2	Old Things	0.324	● NEW
3	No Rain	0.318	▼2
4	Lazarus	0.308	● NEW
5	Rebubula	0.306	▲15
6	Giants	0.300	▲17
7	Spaz Medicine	0.300	● NEW
8	Ups and Downs	0.296	▲9
9	Meat	0.294	▲7
10	Letter Home	0.292	● NEW
11	In Stride	0.290	▲14
12	Tambourine	0.290	▼8
13	Plane Crash	0.288	● NEW
14	Prestige Worldwide	0.288	● NEW
15	Jazz Wank	0.286	▼5
16	Not Coming Down	0.284	● NEW
17	Silver Sun	0.284	● NEW
18	Buster	0.282	▼11
19	Bat Country	0.276	▼4
20	The Pit	0.276	● NEW
21	Four	0.274	● NEW
22	Okayalright	0.268	● NEW
23	Puebla	0.268	▼12
24	Billy Goat	0.266	▼3
25	Captain America	0.266	● NEW
26	Happy Hour Hero	0.266	▼8
27	Yellow Tigers	0.264	▼15
28	32 Things	0.262	▲1
29	Timmy Tucker	0.260	● NEW
30	Moth	0.256	—

○ UPCOMING2026-08-22The Mishawaka — Bellvue, CO

50% turned over vs our initial pick · 16 syncs

expected 26%

actual —

rates of the 30-pool · actual after the show

#	song	conf	Δ
1	Buster	0.304	▲26
2	Downward Facing Dog	0.296	▲14
3	Yellow Tigers	0.294	▼1
4	Blue Jeans Pizza	0.290	● NEW
5	Band in the Sky	0.274	▲24
6	In Stride	0.274	—
7	In Memory of Elizabeth Reed	0.272	● NEW
8	Bat Country	0.264	▲11
9	Captain America	0.264	▲9
10	Seat of My Pants	0.264	● NEW
11	Ups and Downs	0.262	▼6
12	New Hope for the New Year	0.260	● NEW
13	Rebubula	0.258	● NEW
14	Don'tcha Know	0.256	● NEW
15	Ricky Marten	0.256	● NEW
16	Recreational Chemistry	0.254	▲1
17	Wind It Up	0.252	● NEW
18	Mexico	0.250	● NEW
19	Puebla	0.250	▲1
20	Timmy Tucker	0.250	● NEW
21	Giants	0.248	▼18
22	McBain	0.248	● NEW
23	Big World	0.246	● NEW
24	Bullet	0.246	● NEW
25	Opium	0.246	● NEW
26	It	0.244	● NEW
27	Okayalright	0.244	▼17
28	St. Augustine	0.244	● NEW
29	Tailspin	0.244	▼22
30	Haze	0.242	● NEW

○ UPCOMING2026-09-04Adirondack Music Festival — Lake George, NY

43% turned over vs our initial pick · 16 syncs

expected 27%

actual —

rates of the 30-pool · actual after the show

#	song	conf	Δ
1	Yellow Tigers	0.312	▲3
2	Skitchin' Buffalo	0.300	▲16
3	Tailspin	0.294	● NEW
4	Stranger Than Fiction	0.292	● NEW
5	George	0.288	● NEW
6	Giants	0.284	● NEW
7	Recreational Chemistry	0.278	▲13
8	Bat Country	0.276	▼3
9	In Stride	0.276	▼8
10	Tubing the River Styx	0.276	▲1
11	Moth	0.274	▼2
12	Buster	0.264	▼10
13	Living Again	0.264	● NEW
14	ATL	0.262	● NEW
15	Timmy Tucker	0.262	● NEW
16	Bullet	0.260	● NEW
17	The Road	0.260	● NEW
18	Band in the Sky	0.258	▲4
19	Crab Eyes	0.258	▲11
20	Crushing	0.256	● NEW
21	Happy Hour Hero	0.256	▼18
22	Hi & Lo	0.256	● NEW
23	Puebla	0.256	▲2
24	Billy Goat	0.254	● NEW
25	Meat	0.254	▼11
26	Bring You Down	0.252	▲1
27	It	0.252	● NEW
28	Silver Sun	0.252	● NEW
29	Wormwood	0.252	▼23
30	Brent Black	0.250	● NEW

○ UPCOMING2026-09-05Adirondack Music Festival — Lake George, NY

30% turned over vs our initial pick · 16 syncs

expected 27%

actual —

rates of the 30-pool · actual after the show

#	song	conf	Δ
1	Giants	0.310	▲7
2	In Stride	0.306	▲5
3	Bat Country	0.302	▲7
4	Moth	0.302	▲14
5	Time Ed	0.298	● NEW
6	Rebubula	0.296	▼3
7	Meat	0.290	▼2
8	Yellow Tigers	0.284	▼4
9	Ups and Downs	0.282	▲8
10	Silver Sun	0.280	▲19
11	Buster	0.274	▼5
12	Tomorrow Is Another Day	0.274	● NEW
13	Okayalright	0.272	▼2
14	Downward Facing Dog	0.270	▲9
15	Plane Crash	0.266	▼1
16	The Pit	0.266	▲4
17	32 Things	0.262	● NEW
18	Happy Hour Hero	0.260	● NEW
19	Crushing	0.254	▲6
20	Kids	0.254	● NEW
21	Lazarus	0.254	▲7
22	Wind It Up	0.254	● NEW
23	Wormwood	0.254	● NEW
24	Billy Goat	0.252	▼22
25	Captain America	0.252	▼1
26	Blue Jeans Pizza	0.250	▼25
27	Water	0.250	● NEW
28	George	0.248	▼1
29	Band in the Sky	0.246	▼16
30	Puebla	0.244	▼21

○ UPCOMING2026-09-06Adirondack Music Festival — Lake George, NY

23% turned over vs our initial pick · 16 syncs

expected 27%

actual —

rates of the 30-pool · actual after the show

#	song	conf	Δ
1	Band in the Sky	0.288	▲21
2	Blue Jeans Pizza	0.288	● NEW
3	Captain America	0.286	▲7
4	Buster	0.284	▲14
5	Puebla	0.284	▲25
6	Bat Country	0.280	▲17
7	Tailspin	0.280	▲12
8	In Stride	0.278	▲17
9	Okayalright	0.276	▲18
10	Lazarus	0.274	● NEW
11	Billy Goat	0.272	● NEW
12	Yellow Tigers	0.272	▼9
13	Rebubula	0.268	▲4
14	Bring You Down	0.266	● NEW
15	Not Coming Down	0.266	▲1
16	Downward Facing Dog	0.264	▼5
17	Space Truckin'	0.264	● NEW
18	Four	0.260	▼5
19	Mexico	0.260	● NEW
20	Ups and Downs	0.260	▼18
21	Happy Hour Hero	0.258	● NEW
22	Fearless	0.256	● NEW
23	Tubing the River Styx	0.254	▲1
24	Wormwood	0.254	▼19
25	Giants	0.252	▼19
26	Plane Crash	0.252	▼14
27	Recreational Chemistry	0.252	▼6
28	St. Augustine	0.252	● NEW
29	32 Things	0.250	—
30	Kyle's Song	0.250	▼22

○ UPCOMING2026-10-15Harrah's Lake Tahoe — Stateline, NV

33% turned over vs our initial pick · 16 syncs

expected 27%

actual —

rates of the 30-pool · actual after the show

#	song	conf	Δ
1	Buster	0.302	▲18
2	Not Coming Down	0.298	▲25
3	Giants	0.296	● NEW
4	Seat of My Pants	0.290	—
5	Rebubula	0.286	▲11
6	Silver Sun	0.284	▲24
7	Yellow Tigers	0.284	—
8	Brent Black	0.278	● NEW
9	Tailspin	0.278	● NEW
10	Wormwood	0.278	▼4
11	Bat Country	0.272	▼8
12	In Stride	0.268	▼11
13	Puebla	0.268	▲7
14	Downward Facing Dog	0.266	● NEW
15	Ups and Downs	0.266	▼10
16	The Pit	0.264	● NEW
17	Meat	0.262	▼15
18	Mexico	0.260	▲5
19	Moth	0.260	▼9
20	Recreational Chemistry	0.260	▼2
21	George	0.258	● NEW
22	Big World	0.256	—
23	Bullet	0.256	● NEW
24	Captain America	0.256	▼11
25	Plane Crash	0.256	● NEW
26	Happy Hour Hero	0.254	▼18
27	Water	0.254	● NEW
28	Mar De Ma	0.252	▼16
29	Blue Jeans Pizza	0.250	—
30	Crab Eyes	0.246	▼6

○ UPCOMING2026-10-16The Regency Ballroom — San Francisco, CA

33% turned over vs our initial pick · 16 syncs

expected 27%

actual —

rates of the 30-pool · actual after the show

#	song	conf	Δ
1	Moth	0.310	▲18
2	Yellow Tigers	0.310	—
3	Happy Hour Hero	0.296	▲11
4	In Stride	0.296	▼1
5	Giants	0.292	▲1
6	Meat	0.292	● NEW
7	Buster	0.280	▼6
8	Water	0.280	● NEW
9	Band in the Sky	0.278	▲2
10	Bat Country	0.272	▼1
11	Ups and Downs	0.272	▲4
12	Silver Sun	0.270	▲12
13	Downward Facing Dog	0.266	▼3
14	Plane Crash	0.266	● NEW
15	George	0.264	▲14
16	The Pit	0.264	▲1
17	Tomorrow Is Another Day	0.260	● NEW
18	Lazarus	0.258	▼5
19	Mar De Ma	0.258	● NEW
20	Recreational Chemistry	0.258	● NEW
21	ATL	0.256	● NEW
22	Rebubula	0.254	▲1
23	Billy Goat	0.252	▼16
24	Crab Eyes	0.250	● NEW
25	Head	0.250	● NEW
26	Kyle's Song	0.250	● NEW
27	New Hope for the New Year	0.250	▲1
28	Puebla	0.250	▼20
29	Brent Black	0.248	▼13
30	Bring You Down	0.248	▼9

○ UPCOMING2026-10-17The Bellwether — Los Angeles, CA

27% turned over vs our initial pick · 16 syncs

expected 27%

actual —

rates of the 30-pool · actual after the show

#	song	conf	Δ
1	Buster	0.310	▲26
2	Bat Country	0.304	▲17
3	In Stride	0.302	● NEW
4	Blue Jeans Pizza	0.294	▲24
5	Okayalright	0.290	▲16
6	Billy Goat	0.288	▲9
7	32 Things	0.286	▲17
8	Rebubula	0.276	▼6
9	Bring You Down	0.274	● NEW
10	Not Coming Down	0.274	▲7
11	Ups and Downs	0.270	▼1
12	Captain America	0.268	▲8
13	Puebla	0.268	▼4
14	Recreational Chemistry	0.268	▲9
15	Downward Facing Dog	0.266	▼11
16	Giants	0.266	—
17	Tailspin	0.264	▼4
18	Timmy Tucker	0.264	▲8
19	Silver Sun	0.260	▼13
20	Yellow Tigers	0.260	▼17
21	Happy Hour Hero	0.256	● NEW
22	Haze	0.256	● NEW
23	Mexico	0.256	● NEW
24	Tubing the River Styx	0.256	● NEW
25	Moth	0.252	▼20
26	Crab Eyes	0.250	● NEW
27	Meat	0.250	▲3
28	Wormwood	0.250	▼14
29	Kyle's Song	0.248	● NEW
30	Plane Crash	0.246	▼5

○ UPCOMING2026-10-18Belly Up Tavern — Solana Beach, CA

23% turned over vs our initial pick · 16 syncs

expected 27%

actual —

rates of the 30-pool · actual after the show

#	song	conf	Δ
1	Buster	0.302	▲8
2	Ups and Downs	0.296	▲18
3	Band in the Sky	0.286	▲12
4	Bat Country	0.286	▲3
5	Yellow Tigers	0.286	▲1
6	Lazarus	0.284	▲13
7	Rebubula	0.282	▲3
8	Puebla	0.280	● NEW
9	Giants	0.278	▲8
10	Not Coming Down	0.278	▲14
11	Okayalright	0.276	● NEW
12	Meat	0.274	▼10
13	Plane Crash	0.274	▲8
14	Downward Facing Dog	0.272	● NEW
15	In Stride	0.272	▼14
16	Kyle's Song	0.272	▲2
17	Moth	0.272	▲8
18	Timmy Tucker	0.270	▲8
19	Captain America	0.268	▼16
20	ATL	0.266	▼6
21	Brent Black	0.264	● NEW
22	Tailspin	0.262	● NEW
23	George	0.260	● NEW
24	Shoot First	0.260	● NEW
25	St. Augustine	0.258	● NEW
26	Happy Hour Hero	0.256	▼22
27	Wormwood	0.256	▼22
28	Blue Jeans Pizza	0.252	▼15
29	Seat of My Pants	0.252	▼6
30	Big World	0.250	—

Confidence = fraction of 500-rollout burn simulations in which the song appears that night (calibrated appearance probability, burn-aware per night). Iterations are keyed by data cutoff; retro iterations exclude the same-year setlist.fm aggregate, the live current iteration uses the current partial-year bucket. June run columns absent from the schedule use a default set length of 12. Source: research/prediction_history.sqlite. Tape counts come from our archive.org snapshot, last refreshed 2026-07-13 — 11 of the 15 played nights have recordings posted so far. Tapes often land weeks or months after a show, so a night showing none today may well have them later; the count updates on the next refresh.
Per-show setlist data is drawn in part from the setlist.fm API, used under their API terms; setlist.fm does not endorse this project.